India Holds Line on Russian Oil With Trump’s Tariffs in Question

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(Bloomberg) — Indian refiners are keeping Russian oil purchases to a minimum after a US Supreme Court ruling at the end of last week threw into question a long-awaited trade deal that would cut tariffs in exchange for halting those imports.

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Processors have remained on the sidelines and are not booking cargoes as they seek clarity from the Indian government on the future of Russian crude buying, said people familiar with the matter, asking not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the situation. Purchases have already declined over recent months following sustained US pressure on the trade.

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The Supreme Court ruling to scrap President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs upended trade measures worldwide, potentially allowing India room for maneuver. Refiners are hopeful the decision will ease pressure to curb Russian imports, the people said.

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The US administration has since urged partner nations to honor agreements, including a pact with New Delhi to lower levies to 18% from 50% on Indian goods.

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Earlier this month, Trump said he would cut punitive tariffs on India in return for a deal to stop buying Russian oil. Prime Minister Narendra Modi confirmed the agreement without providing any details on crude imports. Indian authorities still haven’t publicly addressed Trump’s claim.

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India emerged as a major buyer of Russian oil following the invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, snapping up barrels that were heavily discounted after other importers shunned Moscow’s energy. At its peak, the South Asian nation was taking 2 million barrels a day.

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This month, Indian refiners are expected to import about 1.2 million barrels a day of Russian crude, the lowest level since November 2022, according to Kpler Ltd. The data analysis firm forecasts flows will decline even further in March to 800,000 to 1 million barrels a day. FGE NexantECA forecasts overall imports could drop by as much as 600,000 barrels a day in March and April.

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India’s recent pullback has left millions of Russian barrels struggling to find a home, stored in tankers at sea or sailing longer distances toward the waters off China and Singapore. Discounts for Russia’s Urals grade have also widened to $15 to $20 a barrel below Dated Brent, the people said. That compares with discounts of more than $10 at the start of February.

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Some refiners such as Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. recently bought crude from the Middle East, or issued tenders for April and May arrival, signaling processors could be positioning for lower Russian supply. That shift leaves the world’s third-largest oil importer exposed to Middle East supply risks, as a US military buildup in the region raises concerns about a conflict with Iran. 

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Millions of barrels of Russian oil stored on tankers at sea could still provide Indian refiners with a quick and cheap solution, provided they get the nod from New Delhi.

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India’s oil ministry didn’t immediately reply to an email seeking comment.

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