How Utah governor’s zoning idea could impact housing

As Utah’s housing crisis deepens, Gov. Spencer Cox is floating a bold solution: take zoning power away from cities and use state authority to allow higher-density housing.

At the Ivory Prize Summit—an event celebrating affordable housing solutions—Cox signaled a sharp policy shift, vowing to “get more aggressive” in addressing affordability.

His message was clear: “Supply, supply, supply.”

It’s a startling proposal for a state that has long celebrated family-friendly suburbs, wide-open spaces, and the standard of homeownership. But with median home prices nearing $600,000 and just 9% of nonhomeowners able to afford a house, according to research from the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Institute—those ideals are slipping out of reach.

Cox’s plan would mark a turning point in Utah’s housing policy, aligning with a growing national trend: state leaders stepping in where local governments have resisted zoning reform. 

A proposal would take zoning power away from cities and use state authority to allow higher-density housing in Utah. Heidi – stock.adobe.com

Supporters say it’s the only way to ease shortages, but critics warn it could upend what makes Utah unique.

A statewide zoning takeover

At the heart of Cox’s proposal is one of the most controversial tools in the housing policy tool kit: statewide zoning preemption. This move would override local rules to allow denser housing and smaller lots, even in cities where residents have resisted it.

But why push for more density in a state with nothing but space? While building out may seem like a simpler and less controversial solution, in practice, it’s not. 

Pushing development outward into wildlands invites urban sprawl—the unchecked spread of low-density, car-dependent neighborhoods across farmland and open terrain. And that sprawl comes at a steep cost.

Aerial view of a vibrant suburban neighborhood in St. George, Utah. Nicholas J. Klein – stock.adobe.com

A 2015 analysis found that unintentional sprawl costs nearly $1 trillion per year, translating to over $750 per capita in added costs for infrastructure such as roads, utilities, and emergency services. Add in vehicle expenses, traffic injuries, and poorer physical health from reduced walkability, and the long-term burden becomes clear.

That’s to say nothing of the increased risk of wildfire, a growing problem across the U.S. Rapid growth of housing development in wildland-urban interface (WUI) has spiked exposure to wildfires, by putting more homes (and lives) in vulnerable areas and increasing ignitions, according to research from the U.S Forest Service.

Those are just a few of the reasons why it’s more efficient to build up, not out. But doing so means tackling the outdated zoning laws that dominate most U.S. cities: Roughly 75% of urban land is locked into single-family zoning—effectively banning duplexes, triplexes, and other more affordable housing types, according to the Journal of Housing and Community Development.

In Utah, those zoning limits are helping fuel the state’s growing affordability crisis. The state is on track to be 50,000 homes short within the next decade, and the median home price is now five times higher than the median income—a threshold economists call “extremely unaffordable.”

It’s these dueling forces that have pushed Cox into a corner and set the stage for his latest housing push.

“I don’t want to go the preemption route, but I would be lying if I said it wasn’t on the table,” Gov. Spencer Cox, who made the suggestion, said. NBC

“Is preemption still on the table? The answer is yes, it has to be,” Cox told the Deseret News. “I don’t want to go the preemption route, but I would be lying if I said it wasn’t on the table.”

The idea isn’t without pushback. Local control is sacrosanct in many Utah communities, especially in a state that prides itself on limited government and family-centered suburban growth.

Advocates, however, suggest that’s exactly the spirit they’re upholding.

“We’re not saying, ‘Make people do this.’ We’re just saying, ‘Let people do this,’” Alli Quinlan, the acting director of Incremental Development Alliance, told the Deseret News. “Remove the government regulations that prevent people from doing this very practical, very common, very historical way that we used to build towns.”

Cox’s plan would align with a growing national trend where state leaders step in where local governments have resisted zoning reform.  AP

‘Go back to the drawing board’

Despite the urgency of Utah’s housing crisis, not everyone supports the push for preemption. Across the country, similar proposals have run into a familiar wall: local resistance rooted in identity, autonomy, and community character. Utah is proving no different.

Local GOP leaders are among the most vocal opponents. Cristy Henshaw, Utah County Republican Party chair, and Mike Carey, chair of the Salt Lake County GOP, have framed the debate as a fundamental clash between state overreach and local self-determination.

“They need to go back to the drawing board and ask the better questions to see what they’re getting ‘mandated’ by holding on to the funding purse strings against the municipalities,” Henshaw told the Deseret News.

They argue that housing prices are shaped by larger market forces, not simply zoning laws, and warn that a “centrally planned housing market” won’t address the root causes of affordability. Not to mention risking the character of what makes Utah’s towns special.

“Riverton or Sandy or Cottonwood Heights, if I live in any one of those towns, I typically didn’t move there because I wanted it to be a city one day,” Carey said. “The second you densify, you’re just adding more people into a system that’s already kind of at capacity.”

How much could upzoning help?

Cox’s critics raise an important question: Is changing zoning laws enough to bring down housing prices?

The argument is simple: Deregulation means more supply, which means lower prices. But critics counter that interest rates, labor shortages, land prices, and inflation are bigger barriers than supply alone.

Still, early data suggests that supply does matter, if it’s achieved at scale.

Rents in Salt Lake City dipped by 0.2% after more than 8,000 new rental units were added. Jason – stock.adobe.com

After more than 8,000 new rental units were added in Salt Lake City, rents dipped by 0.2%, according to a recent Yardi Matrix analysis. That may sound modest, but it bucks the national trend, where rents held steady or rose in many metros.

More broadly, Utah still ranks just 29th in the country for housing affordability and homebuilding pace, according to the latest Realtor.com state-by-state housing report cards. For a state facing a projected shortfall of 50,000 homes, even incremental improvements in zoning could make a meaningful difference.

Is Utah the new California?

Utah’s proposal hardly comes out of left field. Zoning reform has become a national battleground, with states across the political spectrum searching for ways to rein in housing costs.

California’s SB 9 is a good example. The law, passed in 2021, allowed homeowners to split single-family lots and build duplexes—exactly the kind of high-density housing that advocates say is missing. 

But implementation has been rocky. Builders faced sky-high labor costs, material shortages, and logistical hurdles such as utility upgrades, all of which dulled the law’s immediate impact. And today, the state remains far from its targets.

Last year, Sacramento, for example, issued only 2,387 of the nearly 5,700 housing permits it needed to stay on track toward its 2029 goal of 45,580 new homes. Los Angeles, which is dealing with the dual crisis of recovering from the devastating Eaton and Palisades wildfires, is similarly off track, issuing just over 1,800 permits for the more than 11,000 structures destroyed by the fires.

They’re concerning results for anyone who hopes that these types of zoning reforms are the future of affordable housing, and why, if Cox’s top-down strategy succeeds, it could offer a new playbook for tackling housing shortages. But if it falters, it might reinforce a sobering reality: Even the most aggressive reforms can’t outpace NIMBY resistance, supply chain slowdowns, or entrenched local politics.