How USA could play Iran in World Cup: Projecting the scenarios for 2026 FIFA knockout meeting

There has been much tension in the lead-up to the 2026 FIFA World Cup about Iran coming to the United States for this summer's competition.

Thanks to the U.S. military action on Iranian soil, which began in late February and early March, there has been growing tension between the two nations.

Set to compete alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand in Group G, Iran will play all three of their group stage matches on U.S. soil.

At first, there were questions about whether Iran would even participate in the tournament, hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Then, once that was confirmed, their ability to enter U.S. territory for their matches came into question.

With a tense agreement in place and the tournament ready to be contested on the field, the attention has shifted to the very real possibility of the two nations facing one another directly in competitive action.

The Sporting News brings you how this could take place, as the United States and Iran national teams could be on a collision course for knockout stage action.

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How USA could face Iran in FIFA World Cup knockouts

Option 1

With the United States winning Group D, this is the only way these two teams can face off now. It requires Iran to also win their group, which is still in play after they have drawn with New Zealand and Belgium in their first two matches, now likely needing to beat Egypt in their final game to top the Group G standings.

• USA finishes first in Group D
• Iran finishes first in Group G
• Both teams win their Round of 32 match

Because the Group D and Group G winners are slated to meet in the Round of 16 if they get past their third-place finishers in the Round of 32, this is very much on the table.

Option 2

The pathway for this possible meeting considered most likely at the start of the tournament is now off the table.

• USA finishes second in Group D
• Iran finishes second in Group G

Because the U.S. has already guaranteed their place atop the Group D standings, there is no way this could come to pass. If it had, the two sides would have met in the Round of 32 on Friday, July 3 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Before the tournament, it was believed that this was an entirely plausible outcome. The U.S. was favored to win Group D, but only just, as Turkey represented theoretically strong opposition and would have been deserving potential group winners.

Iran, meanwhile, were considered the third-best side in their group, but it would only take one potential upset for them to jump either Belgium or Egypt for the second spot. Belgium disappointed four years ago in Qatar and are prone to defeat, while Egypt struggle to score goals as they lean heavily on Mohamed Salah.

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Option 3

This was considered the most long-shot possible outcome that would see the two teams meet later in the knockout stage, but is also off the table now that the U.S. has won Group D. 

• USA finishes second in Group D
• Iran finishes third in Group G, is drawn in Round of 32 to face the Group B winner in Vancouver on July 2
• Both teams advance to quarterfinals

In truth, this was never likely to occur. The first roadblock to this taking place was Iran being drawn in a particular spot in the bracket after finishing third. There are 495 possible outcomes for third-place finishers to be drawn in various spots in the knockout bracket, all depending on which eight group send third-place qualifiers to the Round of 32.

From there, both teams would have had to progress to the quarterfinals. This would require the United States to, in all likelihood, defeat the Group J winner, the group with defending champions Argentina. It would also require Iran to beat both the Group B and Group K winners.