How the math of the three point line favors a Celtics bounce back in Game 3

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Under the coaching of Ime Udoka and Joe Mazzulla, the Boston Celtics have made their gameplan against any team the same: live or die by the three-point line. The Celtics have been chucking threes at a historic rate since 2022, and it has been the key to multiple playoff runs and a championship.

Now, the Celtics are tied 1-1 in the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Philadelphia 76ers, and they are going to need to hit their deep balls if they want to advance.

The C’s need to hit at least 15 shots from 3-point land

Since 2022, in Celtics playoff wins, Boston has hit 15.1 threes on average. The Celtics attempt 39 per game on average and average about 112.2 points per game in their wins since then as well.

This means the Celtics score over a third of their points from behind the arc. So, they need to make sure they get quality shots to start, and get into a rhythm in order to beat the Sixers.

When the Celtics miss, they lose bad

In the same time frame, when the Celtics lose, they only put up around 100.6 points per game. On average, they miss almost 26 threes, while only hitting around 12.

So, those three threes really do matter. The Celtics need to hit around 37.5% of their shots from deep in order to win games. Otherwise, if they shoot less than that, they are almost guaranteed to lose.

This series so far

In Game 1, the Celtics made 16 out of 44 threes, one above their winning average. While their 3pt percentage was only 36%, it was close enough, and they hit on total threes needed to win.

As for Game 2, they hit only 13 out of 50 threes, which is a sad 26%, way below their winning average. They also failed their mark to hit 15 threes, which could have kept them in the game. If they hit those two extra threes, they would have been in a single-digit deficit, which is much easier to overcome mentality-wise.

So, the C’s know what they need to do today. They need to get open looks, sink their shots from behind the arc, and guard up on Sixer threes for good measure. Boston will face Philly in Game 3 tonight at 7:00pm EST on Prime.

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