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With Manchester City reportedly being found guilty of the majority of the charges brought against them by the Premier League, attention has already turned towards how the rest of the process will play out.
The club is expected to appeal the decision, but if that holds up, the Premier League will have to determine how they wish to sanction City for their breaches.
Thanks to the flexibility of the Premier League regulations, everything is seemingly on the table. If it comes to it, how hard will the league come down on one of their biggest and most prominent clubs?
The Sporting News runs through the pluses and minuses of each potential punishment, and decides how likely each one is to become reality.
MORE: The teams that could benefit from Man City having titles vacated
What do the Premier League rules say about Man City's punishment?
A variety of punishments could be on the table for Manchester City after reportedly being found guilty on the majority of the charges brought against them by the Premier League.
According to The Athletic and many other reports around the UK, everything is on the table for Man City, from a slap on the wrist to a points deduction and even expulsion from the league.
According to Premier League regulation W.64, the following potential punishments are on the table:
Having heard and considered such mitigating and/or aggravating factors (if any) the commission may:
- Reprimand the respondent
- Impose upon the respondent a fine unlimited in amount and suspend any part thereof
- In the case of a respondent which is a club:
- Suspend it from playing in league matches or any matches in competitions which form part of the games programmes or professional development leagues (as those terms are defined in the youth development rules) for such period as it thinks fit
- Deduct points scored or to be scored in league matches or such other matches
- Recommend that the board orders that a league match or such other match be replayed
- Recommend that the league expels the respondent from membership in accordance with the provisions of Rule B.6
- Order the respondent to pay compensation unlimited in amount to any person or to any lub (or club)
- Cancel or refuse the registration of a player registered or attempted to be registered in contravention of these rules
- Impose upon the respondent any combination of the foregoing or such other penalty as it shall think fit
Essentially, everything from a verbal reprimand to a fine, retroactive negation of match results, a points deduction, or expulsion from the league are all possible.
MORE: Will Man City be relegated after reported Premier League guilty verdict?
Which potential punishment fits for Man City violations?
Each potential punishment comes with its own set of positive and negative effects on not only Manchester City, but also the Premier League, English football as a whole, and even European and global football.
This is, undoubtedly, a seismic moment for the governance of the sport on the whole.
Here is a note about each potential punishment that the Premier League could mete out, and why it either works or doesn't.
Written reprimand
Positives
Essentially none.
Negatives
Given all the time and effort the Premier League have invested into the investigation, and how serious the alleged violations are, this option is basically unthinkable. It would be mocked, criticized, and billboarded by essentially every stakeholder, fan, and media member for being weak and embarrassing.
Likelihood: 0/10
Fine
Positives
Fining Manchester City would not only prove how serious their alleged violations were, but also help signal to stakeholders that such breaches will have an impact on their bottom line, and help assuage competitors who believe they have been financially impacted by Man City's wrongdoings.
According to The Athletic, Manchester United are already lining up to consider recovering possible financial losses from City's violations, and forcing the club to issue compensation for their actions could go a long way in avoiding individual lawsuits stemming from the violations.
Almost certainly, the eventual punishment will feature some kind of financial compensation.
Negatives
There are no downsides to installing a financial component to the eventual punishment.
Likelihood: 9/10
Present day points deduction
Positives
If the Premier League hands down a points deduction for the 2026/27 season (or the 2027/28 season if the appeal process drags on), it would signal how serious the league is about City's actions and violations. It's likely that the financial irregularities alone were enough for the league to perk up, but the club's apparent actions to deceive and mislead the investigation might compound the league's desire to issue serious punishment.
There was, undoubtedly, a huge financial and competitive advantage gained by City through their alleged actions, and docking them points this season is a way of signaling that is unacceptable.
Everton were docked six points for just one violation of the Profit and Sustainability Rules, which feels like an ominous precedent for City.
Negatives
It feels more likely than not that Manchester City will receive some kind of present-day points deduction, but it remains to be seen how serious it will end up being. It feels like all options are available, between a small slap on the wrist to a cataclysmic hammer that would condemn the club to certain relegation.
The question, then, is how much should City be deducted? There's no question that, if indeed a deduction is meted out, it should at the very least be enough to disqualify them from title contention, and top four contention. To do that, it would need to be at least 25-30 points.
But should it be enough to see them relegated? That's a massive, catastrophic punishment that could — and almost certainly would — alter the course of the club's history. Not only that, but it would hugely disrupt the balance of power throughout the English football pyramid. Players' careers would be upended — players who maybe are benefitting from City's actions years ago, but almost certainly had nothing to do with them. Clubs in the Championship would be livid that their chances of promotion the following season would be reduced significantly by a Champions League-caliber club playing in their league.
Additionally, it would torpedo the Premier League's own product in a real and significant way this season. Condemning a title-contender — one of the biggest viewership draws in the league — to certain relegation would render all their games competitively meaningless would significantly reduce viewership and harm the league's bottom line. For the Premier League to light its own product on fire in such a way would be enormously damaging now and in the future.
The ramifications of City's relegation would reach far and wide. It would have too much of a ripple effect to be considered the correct course of action, even if it feels deserved.
Likelihood: 6/10
Retroactive points deduction and titles revoked
Positives
Considering City's actions from 2009 to 2018, there is no doubt that their alleged financial irregularities will have given the club a competitive advantage throughout multiple competitions. They undoubtedly benefitted from their increased profile through that stage of existence, which furthered their growth and worked to establish them as one of Europe's top teams.
Because of this, a retroactive points deduction and vacating titles makes sense. While it can't take away the memories and experiences of those moments — "Agueroooooo!" will still live on in the league's lore, even if it's competitively erased — but it can eliminate some of the tangible gain from those trophies won.
Negatives
Plenty of detractors will, reasonably, argue that vacating past titles does little to actually punish a club on a tangible level.
The rise to prominence for City amongst Europe's elite happened regardless of whether the Premier League retroactively removes those trophies, and the memories for fans still live on. Striking City from the record books through those nine years does tarnish their legacy significantly, but it leaves them to continue reaping the benefits of being one of the richest and most powerful clubs on the planet.
While these are all fair arguments, there is still something to be said for scrubbing the league's history books of their unfairly achieved trophies. It will be awkward for a bit referring to historical events that "didn't happen," but in time the league's lore will come to accept the new title-winners.
Likelihood: 6/10
Premier League expulsion
Positives
Expelling Man City from the Premier League has its merits. As explained above, City's rise to prominence on the back of alleged financial irregularities cannot be reigned in fully by erasing past achievements. They must suffer some form of present-day sporting sanctions to nullify such gains.
Sending Man City to the Championship — or lower — would go a long way in doing so. After rising to become one of Europe's most dominant sides, their standing within the English and European football pyramid would be immediately erased, torn to a shell of their former selves.
Negatives
Would expelling Man City from the Premier League be too much? Arguably, yes. As explained before, relegating City to a lower league would not only put the club's existence at risk, but it would enormously upset the balance of power throughout the English lower leagues.
Many of the perpetrators of such alleged violations are no longer at the club, and such devastating punishments would leave many people caught up in the web of sanctions who do not deserve such serious misfortune. Additionally, declaring Man City expelled from the Premier League in the middle of the season would create unprecedented problems — where would they play? What league would they compete in? What competition would they be left to join? Would they just not play any more matches this season?
Ultimately, booting Man City from the Premier League through official action would be an overtly aggressive move that would be better served through an unassailable points deduction than it would be in this manner.
Likelihood: 2/10
Football League expulsion
Unquestionably, the most serious consequence that Man City could suffer would be expulsion from the Football League.
As far as their statutes are concerned, the Premier League does not have the power to do this. They can only expel clubs from the top flight, but their jurisdiction ends there.
Additionally, this punishment would be overtly harsh. Relegating Man City for (likely) one season in the Championship is one thing, but delivering them to the fifth tier of the football pyramid would be a death sentence that few people actually believe they deserve for deliberately mismanaging their books.
This kind of punishment should be left to far more serious crimes.
Likelihood: 0/10
Forced club sale
One punishment not directly mentioned in the Premier League handbook is forcing Man City's owners to sell the club.
Currently, there is no mechanism for the Premier League to take such action, but they could still consider options that would allow them leverage in such a move.
First, an ownership validity test through an independent regulator has already been proposed by English football governing bodies, and was implemented in early May. So far, it is only for new club owners, but could be potentially expanded to current owners who take certain unsavory actions.
Second, they could use their ability to hand down more serious punishments to their advantage, telling Shiekh Mansour and City Football Group that they must sell the club or face relegation, expulsion, or other serious punishments if they don't.
At the end of the day, City's ownership group have seemingly engaged in not just flagrant disregard for the league's regulations and constraints, but actively covered up their actions to do so. They have brought famous history to Manchester City during their time in charge, but at what cost?
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