How media market data could factor into upcoming NHL expansion decision

Per sources, media-market data and information is to be heavily considered as the NHL looks to either Houston or Austin, Texas for their possible 33rd franchise. 

Following a June 23 Board of Governors meeting, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman announced that the NHL will open a six-month process to analyze the possibility of expanding to either Houston or Austin. Dan Friedkin — the chairman and CEO of The Friedkin Group — has been identified as the prospective owner of the Texas expansion franchise. Bettman would also reveal that the NHL has already entered into an agreement with the Friedkin family to explore the possibility of this Texas expansion team, with the Dallas Stars being Texas's pre-existing League franchise.

The efforts are reported to result in an approximately $3.5 billion investment made by the Friedkins, which includes the expansion fee that goes to the NHL and the cost of building a new arena — a NHL requirement for the expansion team in either Houston or Austin.

These latest developments have been in the works for around two years as the Friedkin family has considered Houston, with Austin also having come into discussion in more recent conversations.

"We have been in discussions for the better part of two years with the Friedkin family, principally for the last two years about Houston as an expansion opportunity," said Commissioner Bettman previously per the NHL's media release. "But as we continued to focus with them, particularly on the need for a new arena in Houston, the discussions morphed into also a discussion about Austin, which would also need a new building. But we are going to work together under the terms, a term sheet that we were able to agree upon, in terms of a framework to consider what makes the most sense moving forward."

Houston leading over Austin in media market data ahead of NHL expansion efforts

However, media-market data shows that Houston comes out as the stronger potential NHL market by far.

Should the League's main priority be to maximize media reach and commercial scale ahead of future television-rights negotiations, then Houston has the clear cut advantage. This is noteworthy, as the NHL's U.S. media rights deals (with ESPN/Disney and Turner Sports) expire after the 2027-28 season — with Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly already having gone on record to say that the NHL's expectation is to have the next expansion team playing come the 2029-30 season.

"We’re primarily interested in and our owners are primarily interested in a potential expansion franchise in Houston. We left open the possibility that we may examine and consider and evaluate Austin, TX as well," Daly said on The Sick Podcast with NHL reporter Jimmy Murphy. "The hope and to some extent the expectation is that we will have a team in play in time for the 2029-30 season."

Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly breaks down the latest developments for upcoming @NHL expansion plans! 👇#thesickpodcast @MurphysLaw74 pic.twitter.com/VFWtSHiqIz

With that information in mind, CanadaSportsBetting.ca has provided exclusive data detailing that the current 2025-26 TVB/Nielsen table places Houston as the No. 6 media market, compared to Austin which comes in at No. 32.

Houston also has around 2.8 million TV households, compared to only just over 1 million in Austin. In addition, Houston's radio audience and metro population are roughly three times Austin’s. Houston’s 2024 metro GDP is approximately $758 billion, compared with $268 billion for Austin.

The dataset provided indicated that Austin's potential strength for hosting a NHL team comes with the city's growth and not pre-existing resources, as Austin has had a 14.8% population growth from the 2020 base to the 2025 estimate.

In summary, Houston presents the larger immediate media-rights opportunity for the NHL — which sources have confirmed will be heavily considered in which city will get the final nod as the 33rd franchise. 

The six-month process to analyze the possibility of expanding to either Houston or Austin is currently ongoing.

MORE: All to know from the recently announced Texas NHL expansion