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The 2026 NFL Draft cycle isn't done quite yet.
On Monday, it became clear that Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby was NFL-bound. After a breakout campaign at Cincinnati, a high-profile transfer to Lubbock, and a gambling scandal that threatened it all, Sorsby has ended his legal battle with the NCAA.
In entering the supplemental draft, Sorsby will be the subject of a blind auction, where teams can bid with 2027 draft picks. Tiebreakers favor bottom cellars and non-playoff teams, breaking into tiers before a weighted lottery, and teams are ineligible for picking in rounds in which they don't have 2027 selections.
With little left on the offseason calendar, the Sorsby hype is already running rampant. However, history suggests the NFL won't be quite as high as its fans.
Brendan Sorsby stock speculation
There are certainly a handful of teams who could use Sorsby. He's a high-upside passer who may have been a Day 2 pick this past April -- the chance at a discount makes that risk worth considering at the very least.
The obvious candidates are the QB-needy teams left at the altar when Dante Moore returned to Oregon. The New York Jets and Cleveland Browns lack obvious long-term answers at the position. Virtually all of the NFC South has a reasonable argument to throw in a late-round pick, and a handful of teams who just rolled the dice on a mid-round rookie could find themselves in the sweepstakes, too.
That doesn't guarantee that Sorsby earns first-round capital. As much as there is always a need for quality quarterbacking, the demand for someone so thoroughly surrounded by controversy is meager.
Sorsby broke the cardinal rule of sports and, to an extent, got away with it. With a possible suspension looming, teams may still balk at the prospect of Sorsby stepping into their 2026 plans. Similarly, there are obvious character concerns to consider. We should hold gambling addiction with the proper seriousness, but teams will hold his accountability -- or lack thereof -- under significant scrutiny.
MORE: Browns face impossible Brendan Sorsby question
As such, Sorsby feels much more likely to require a third- or fourth-round bid than an early-round selection. If the league felt Sorsby was a first-round talent, he would have been advised to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft. He didn't.
Despite the physical tools that jump off the screen, his Cincinnati film left plenty to be desired. His accuracy and processing both wavered, and he's unlikely to maintain his ludicrous pressure-to-sack rate against NFL athletes. Sorsby looked more like a fringe top-100 project than a franchise quarterback, and without the upcoming season to boost his stock, teams aren't likely to view him any more favorably than they did this spring.
It's worth noting that some teams will be markedly higher on Sorsby than others. It only takes one team to go all-in on his tools, and teams may feel the demand for Sorsby's tools is greater than it actually is. While we can't rule out an exceptionally high bid, it seems much more likely than Sorsby goes for a third- or fourth-round pick, presumably to a team with a need under center and a relatively high risk tolerance.
Frankly, it's hard to rule anything out given the immense surplus value Sorsby could offer and the inherent risks lining his profile. How early he's drafted -- and how early he plays -- may shape the quarterback landscape ahead of the 2027 offseason.
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