How good was Secretariat? Here's our Kentucky Derby expert prediction from 1973 (SN Archive)

This article, 'Secretariat One in Hundred for 99th Derby' by Gordon Jones originally appeared in the May 5, 1973 issue of The Sporting News.

LOUISVILLE—The 99th running of the historic Kentucky Derby will have something the track of the twin spires hasn't seen in a full quarter century if a hunk of horse called Secretariat makes it to Blue Grass Country without incident.

First of his species to be voted Horse of the Year over his elders at the tender age of 2, Secretariat has come back to the races at age 3 a horse of a different color yet.

Horsemen and turf writers alike are saluting him most likely to succeed on looks alone, even though his battle record would do credit to Billy Martin or Audie Murphy.

Charley Hatton, a sophisticated old school columnist who has seen them all come and go for three generations, confesses he never has laid eyes on such a beast.

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Bobby Frankel, a 31-year-old from the streets of New York who broke all Hollywood Park training records on the other coast last summer, waxes even more enthusiastic.

“I was in New York when Secretariat was beating everything in sight last fall,” he said. “It was like watching a 3-year-old running against 2-year-olds. And they tell me the boy has become a man this year. I just don't know if it's worth shipping across country to run against a horse like that this early in the season.”

The statement is slightly more than academic when it comes from young Mr. Frankel, who is regarded as a worthy son of Houdini by Californians who marvel at his trick of turning $10,000 losers into $20,000 winners almost overnight.

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This season, Broadway Bobby has a genuinely good colt of his own for a change, a speedy fellow named Linda's Chief. And some westerners actually think he can run with mighty Secretariat.

“I think my horse will catch up with Secretariat in due time, but I don't know if he's ready to tackle him at a mile and one quarter in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May,” said Frankel.

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“Make the race a flat mile on one of our glib western tracks like Santa Anita and I think we might beat him.”

Linda's Chief's last outing was an impressive victory in the California Derby on April 21, but Frankel, at this writing, was still debating whether to ship his horse to Louisville.

Frankel knows his colt is the fastest miler in Santa Anita history off a track-record 1:33 4/5 lap March 1, but he also knows Secretariat.

“I almost makes you shudder when you stop to think about this horse. There on four fragile legs goes the whole future of horse racing and breeding in this country.”

- Charley Hatton

Possibly the only trainer in the country who isn't awed by the Horse of the Year hardware on the eve of the sport's most famous race is Cuban expatriate Frank (Pancho) Martin.

Marin trains Sham, a $220,000 son of Pretense and Sequoia who recently won the rich Santa Anita Derby over Linda's Chief in 1:47 for 1⅛ miles and was a fast-closing second, beaten only a short neck, to Angle Light in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 21, a race in which Secretariat, lacking his usual stretch kick, finished third, beaten four lengths.

The Santa Anita race matched the swiftest Derby on record out west, and it turns out the company Sham was keeping in the record book was Lucky Debonair, a nice colt who parlayed his fast trip into a Kentucky Derby with Willie Shoemaker.

Sham will be going to Louisville with a Panamanian rider observers view as the new Shoemaker, a muscular and dedicated young man who answers to Laffit Pincay Jr.

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National champion in total winners year before last, Pincay has led the world in total purses won four years running. He is off on top again this season with the Santa Anita riding crown already tucked away, and Sports Illustrated turf writer Whitney Tower says he could be the difference if Sham is in a league with Secretariat.

“Secretariat's rider, Ron Turcotte, is a fine jockey,” said Tower, who operates out of New York where Turcotte performs, “but Pincay is probably the best we have today.”

Indeed, Pincay wins with the second or third ranking horse more frequently than any man since Shoemaker resided on the other side of 40.

Pancho Martin, however, is not banking that much on the skills of Mr. Pincay. He believes his Sham is going to whip Secretariat again when they meet at 10 furlongs in Kentucky.

“Linda's Chief beat us badly in California the first time we faced him, but we beat him in the Derby when it counted,” Martin reminded listeners as he girded for another super effort.

He is a loud and direct man, and you do not hasten to add within earshot that many consider Sham's Derby victory over Linda's Chief slightly tainted.

Sham's stablemate, Knightly Dawn, intimidated Linda's Chief rather effectively at the start of Santa Anita's Derby, and Linda never assumed his customary position in front of Sham during the early furlongs.

“The start cost us at least four or five lengths,” said 1972 Eclipse Award jockey Braulio Baeza, who succeeded Pincay as the man voted best in his field last year. And that was more than enough to offset the 2 ½lengths Sham finally had over Linda's Chief in their money match.

Elsewhere, there are other colts who would be bona-fide contenders another spring when a Horse of the Year was not already posted 3-5 in the Future Books.'

Impecunious won the $100,000 Arkansas Derby over an ordinary field on a “good” racing surface that sapped the speed of favored Shecky Green, who was telling folks he really wants to sprint.

Royal and Regal won the $100,000 Florida Derby in a creditable 1:47 2/5, only to have veteran jockey Walter Blum deplane and announce that the same Aisco Stable really has the proverbial “better horse in the barn.”

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He soon was identified as a freewheeling speedball named Mr. Prospector.

A $220,000 son of the prolific sire Raise A Native out of Gold Digger, Mr. Prospector first came to the races last winter in Miami. He broke his maiden by 12 lengths at six furlongs and then won by six lengths at seven furlongs.

Moving across town from Hialeah to Gulfstream Park after a cough slowed him down a couple of weeks, he won by nine in a track record 1:07 4/5 six furlongs to secure passage to Louisville.

There trainer Jimmy Croll soon will discover if he has a horse who can run half again that far in top company for the big dollar.

To be sure, still others such as Step Nicely, Our Native, Champagne Charlie, My Gallant and Forego are watching from the wings, hoping somebody knocks down the champion, wondering if injury or sickness might slow him at the 11th hour as it has many an equine Goliath before.

But this time most of the skeptics are convinced that a truly great thoroughbred is poised to follow Citation's example and become the first horse to sweep the Triple Crown since 1948. What manner of beast is this Secretariat?

Well, French Canadian trainer Lucien Laurin says he could beat last year's Derby winner, Riva Ridge, doing practically anything, and Laurin should know because he trains them both for Mrs. John Tweedy of Meadow Stable.

Laurin may have a second string to his bow in the Wood winner, Angle Light. The Edwin Whittaker-owned colt led from wire to wire in New York's last major prep for the Derby and, although he was all out at the finish of the 9-furlong test, did what was asked of him and may have earned himself a starter's role for the May 5 classic.

Secretariat stands two inches over 16 hands, if you count your hands as four inches, and he weighs in at 1,155 pounds, which Laurin considers just right.

He has rippling muscles, a coppery chestnut coat, three white stockings, a prophetic white star on his forehead and the bold look of a living legend. His father, the great Bold Ruler, was the sire of the decade.

He fools exercise boys by breaking stopwatches before breakfast when they think he is just galloping along, and he dismays contemporaries after lunch by breaking records.

He matched the Aqueduct track record for a mile one month before the Derby under a Kentucky-sized package of 126 pounds by stopping the automatic timer in 1:33 2/5.

Normally a four-legged heartbreak kid who plays caboose until he materializes into a runaway locomotive a half mile from the finish, he shook up the troops that day by leading most of the way.

“What strategy do you use against a horse like that?” one trainer moaned.

“He wins on the front and from far back and he wins on dry land and in the mud. I don't see how he can miss.”

Viewing it all from the far reaches of Lake Tahoe, where he maintains his Future Book, North Swanson of Reno Turf Club caught the message loud and clear.

He slashed Secretariat to the lowest price in modern Future Book history with a promise to go lower still. Just to show he is all heart, though, Swanson quoted the colt 5-2 to sweep the Derby, Preakness and Belmont. Then he thought again and cut that.

What else can you do with a majestic piece of horseflesh who recently moved realists to syndicate him for a record $6,080,000?

Perhaps Charley Hatton caught the essence of the horse early one morning on Long Island not long ago when he spied Secretariat moving in the crisp dawn air.

“I almost makes you shudder when you stop to think about this horse,” he mused. “There on four fragile legs goes the whole future of horse racing and breeding in this country.”