High Turnout Marks First Major Elections of Trump’s Second Term

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(Bloomberg) — Voters in Virginia, New Jersey, New York and California will soon offer the strongest and earliest clues about America’s political landscape heading into next year’s consequential midterm elections.

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The so-called off-year contests are part referendum, part barometer, part guidepost and possibly part springboard. Republicans will look for clues on how Americans grade President Donald Trump and their party’s governance — as well as what the future may hold when he’s no longer on the ballot. 

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Democrats are still trying to find their way a year after they were routed by Trump and the GOP. But while candidates were largely focused around the same message of the economy and affordability, the elections are highlighting an ideological fracture in the party. Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill are considered center-left Democrats, but in New York City Democratic voters nominated self-described democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, who has enjoyed a wide lead in polls. 

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Meanwhile California Governor Gavin Newsom has staked his political future, including a possible Democratic White House run, on pushing a ballot initiative to redistrict the largest US state, a response to Trump’s own gerrymandering crusade. 

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The first glimpse comes in Virginia’s governor’s race, which has a history of being unkind to incumbent presidents: 11 of the last 12 governor’s elections have been won by the party not in control of the White House. Polling gives an edge to Spanberger against Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. Polls close at 7 p.m. New York time.

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Spanberger, a former CIA officer and three-term congresswoman, has focused on the state’s economy and the month-long federal government shutdown that’s left thousands of Virginia’s federal workers without pay. Earle-Sears, a Marine veteran and the first Black woman elected statewide, has emphasized immigration and parental rights, an issue that helped term-limited Governor Glenn Youngkin win four years ago.

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In New Jersey, Democrats are hoping to extend their hold on the governorship in a state that routinely votes blue for president but drifted toward Republicans in the last presidential election. Sherrill, a congresswoman, Navy veteran and former prosecutor, faces former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli — who nearly unseated Democratic Governor Phil Murphy in 2021. 

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The New Jersey race will be an early signal of whether Trump’s coalition, which made inroads with White working-class voters in the state, will stick with the GOP when he’s not on the ballot. Trump has endorsed Ciattarelli, who has campaigned on cutting taxes and energy costs, while Sherrill has emphasized transit funding and child care. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time.