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(Bloomberg) — Gold held a gain as traders monitored threats to energy supply routes that risk stoking inflation and putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates.
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Bullion was trading around $4,080 an ounce, after gaining almost 2% the previous session. US President Donald Trump played down the prospect of immediate talks with Iran as the two sides exchanged strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, while Houthi militants in Yemen threatened shipping in the Red Sea.
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Trump’s comments came after the 10th day of US and Iranian attacks and as mediators continued efforts to restart negotiations. Oil prices again ticked higher on Wednesday, and have surged in July since hostilities resumed in the nearly five-month war.
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A spate of attacks on Russia’s Black Sea coast, which ships most of Kazakhstan’s oil, added further pressure.
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The US-Iran war helped to end a multiyear bull run for gold, which has fallen more than a quarter from its January peak of close to $5,600 an ounce. Prices are now showing signs of support at the key psychological level of $4,000 on dip-buying after two weeks of losses. Silver has also jumped, gaining more than 4% on Tuesday.
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Precious metals traders are weighing higher energy prices against soft US economic data as they scan for clues about the Fed’s path for interest rates. Elevated borrowing costs are a headwind for non-yielding bullion.
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“Gold is struggling for direction,” with central bank purchases supporting prices while exchange-traded funds sold holdings on rate-hike fears, analysts at Morgan Stanley including Amy Gower said in a note. However, they see room for ETFs to re-enter the market on the expectation that the Fed will ultimately stay on gold this year and resume cutting rates next year.
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The analysts forecast gold at $4,450 an ounce and silver at $65.40 an ounce by the fourth quarter.
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Spot gold was 0.1% higher at $4,080.79 an ounce as of 7:52 a.m. in Singapore. Silver was flat at $58.83 an ounce. Platinum and palladium edged higher. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, was stable after rising 0.2% the previous session.
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