Get Ready for Double Whammy of US Jobs and Inflation

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Looking north, the Bank of Canada’s summary of deliberations will offer insight into its decision to hold rates steady for a second consecutive meeting, while warning that heightened uncertainty made its next move hard to predict. Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will speak on Thursday about how artificial intelligence is impacting the economy.

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Elsewhere, Japan’s election, inflation data from China to Switzerland to Brazil, gross domestic product in the UK, and rate decisions from Russia to Peru may focus investors. 

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Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

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Asia

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China sets the tone early with January credit data, including new yuan loans, aggregate financing, and money supply figures. 

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Investors want to see whether easier policy is translating into stronger economic momentum. Inflation readings later in the week, including producer and consumer prices due Wednesday, should help clarify whether deflationary pressures are easing or becoming more entrenched.

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Fresh off a national election, Japan gets a big batch of data on Monday, with cash earnings and real wage data for December expected to shed light on whether income growth is fueling prices. Balance-of-payments figures are released the same day, while machinery orders later in the week will offer an update on capital spending momentum.

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In Australia, attention turns to domestic demand indicators arriving Tuesday, including household spending for December and consumer confidence readings. The figures land a week after the Reserve Bank’s hawkish pivot.

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South Korea has January unemployment data on Wednesday.

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In Southeast Asia, the spotlight turns to growth. Malaysia releases fourth-quarter GDP on Friday, alongside current-account figures, offering insight into domestic demand.

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India publishes January inflation on Thursday, a key test for the Reserve Bank of India as it weighs the scope for easing later this year. Food prices remain a swing factor, and any upside surprise could complicate the policy outlook.

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In sum, the week’s data will help determine whether Asia’s cooling inflation narrative is intact — or whether, as Australia’s experience shows, central banks risk being pushed into a more stop-start policy path as growth and prices diverge across the region.

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Europe, Middle East, Africa

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Following the Bank of England’s close vote against a rate cut — and Governor Andrew Bailey’s apparent endorsement of bets on a 50% chance of a March move — data in the coming week will reveal the strength of the economy in the fourth quarter. Most analysts predict only a slight acceleration to growth of 0.2% from the prior three months.

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Officials scheduled to speak include key voters including Bailey himself on Sunday and Catherine Mann on Monday. Chief economist Huw Pill is on the diary for Friday.

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In the euro zone, following the European Central Bank’s decision to keep borrowing costs unchanged, an appearance on Monday in the European Parliament by President Christine Lagarde is among several by policymakers in the coming days. Data on trade and a second reading of GDP are due on Friday. 

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On Thursday, European Union leaders will gather for a meeting focused on improving the bloc’s single market — for which the ECB has provided a checklist of desired measures. 

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Switzerland’s inflation number on Friday may draw attention, with a result of just 0.1% — at the lower end of the Swiss National Bank’s target range — predicted by economists. Some even forecast a return to zero price growth, while the central bank chief, Martin Schlegel, has acknowledged that more negative readings are possible this year.

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Both Norway and Denmark will release inflation numbers on Tuesday following Norway’s GDP reading the previous day.