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Kylian Mbappe's brace against Sweden brace tied for the tournament lead.
Emmanuele Mastrodonato/IPA/INSTARimages
Leave fireworks off the shopping list — the French are providing them for this year’s Fourth of July party.
Les Bleus, who enter the Round of 16 as +184 favorites to win the tournament, cruise into Philadelphia on the heels of a 3-0 thrashing of Sweden. The French fashioned a host of chances, generating 12 shots on goal and 3.24 xG.
Much thanks, of course, to Golden Boot favorite Kylian Mbappé, whose brace tied Lionel Messi with the tournament lead of six and moved within one of Messi’s all-time record. It was Mbappé’s fourth multi-goal game in a World Cup knockout match — good for twice as many as any other player in tournament history.
And while we’re on the subject of records, France have now scored at least three goals in each of their last five World Cup matches, the tournament’s all-time longest streak.
Against Paraguay, they’re favored at a -550 price tag on the three-way moneyline at FanDuel. Paraguay is the Round of 16’s biggest longshot at 18/1.
World Cup: France vs. Paraguay odds, prediction
Paraguay gets to play the role of David again after stunning Germany in the World Cup’s most shocking upset so far.
La Albirroja’s resilience against a German team that hounded the ball to a 75 percent possession share and led 1.57 to 0.35 in expected goals (xG) certainly counts for something. Winning 4-3 on penalties following a 1-1 draw might just have been the only path where Paraguay came away on top.
Slaying France will be a much greater Goliath, however.
Between Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola, Les Bleus’ offensive creativity is boundless. This quartet can blitz opponents at will with rapid transitions, acute passing and clinical finishing. With that luxury on hand, Didier Deschamps’ philosophy of defensive pragmatism keeps the game at low risk while allowing big moments to surface through counterattacking.
Matias Galarza of Paraguay celebrates during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round Of 32 match between Germany and Paraguay. Marcel ter Bals/DeFodi Images/ShutterstockWith a measly eight shots on target through their first four World Cup matches, Paraguay is simply not equipped to disrupt this scheme. Their output is heavily inflated relative to chance quality, potting only three goals from 1.5 xG across those matches. Now imagine that inefficiency exposed against a French defense that produced a clean sheet against a formidable Swedish attack that had scored in every group match.
The Paraguayans bank upon deep defending and low possession; they are second-to-last amongst the tournament in possession share with a 31.2 percent clip. Unlike Germany, France won’t allow this match to settle into that kind of randomness. They don’t overcommit in transition, which caps Paraguay’s scoring upside via scrappy, low-volume counterattacks.
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Even when opponents survive the opening barrage, France sustains attacking waves and forces defensive collapses late.
This is nothing new either. Having reached the final in both 2018 and 2022, France is well conditioned to power into the quarterfinals, especially with Mbappé’s scoring form in full flow.
We can boost value on backing the French by pairing another Mbappé goal with over 2.5 on their team total for +238 odds on DraftKings.
THE PLAY: France Over 2.5 goals & Mbappé anytime scorer (+238, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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