Ford Sees Profit Rebounding After $900 Million Tariff Bill

A worker fits wheel hub badges on a Ford automobile assembly line. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg Photo by Krisztian Bocsi /Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bl

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(Bloomberg) — Ford Motor Co. expects profit to jump in 2026 after being saddled with a surprise tariff bill at the end of last year.

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An unexpected change in tariff provisions cost Ford about $900 million in savings it expected last year, Chief Financial Officer Sherry House told reporters on Tuesday. The Trump administration informed Ford on Dec. 23 about the matter, which effectively doubled Ford’s tariff toll to $2 billion.

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“We were notified very late in the year by the Trump administration of an unexpected change” related to how automakers can trim what they pay in tariffs, House said. “Due to that late communication, we learned that we would not be able to bring in $900 million associated with that.”

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Ford’s adjusted earnings dropped to 13 cents a share in the fourth quarter, the company said Tuesday, short of analysts’ average estimate for 18 cents a share.

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Ford expects profit will rise even as it contends with ongoing turmoil tied to tariffs, its money-losing EV business and fallout from a supplier fire last year that cost the company $2 billion worth of F-Series pickup production.

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Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes will be $8 billion to $10 billion in 2026, up from $6.8 billion last year. The midpoint of Ford’s outlook is slightly higher than the $8.86 billion average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

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Without the late-December tariff bill, Ford’s adjusted Ebit would have been $7.7 billion last year, House said.

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House said Ford expects tariffs to reduce profit by about $2 billion again this year. That’s because it will need to purchase foreign-made aluminum subject to import taxes for its top-selling F-Series pickups to make up for supplies disrupted by last year’s fires at Novelis Inc.’s mill in New York state.

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The disruption will continue to take a toll on Ford in the first half of the year, House said. The Novelis site hit by the fires will not fully resume production until this summer, she said.

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The automaker also plans to increase capital spending this year to as much as $10.5 billion, up from less than $9 billion in 2025. House said the company is spending an additional $1 billion to set up a new business to sell energy storage cells to utilities and data centers.

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Ford’s shares rose 1.7% at 4:49 p.m. in after-hours trading in New York. The stock had gained about 47% in the 12 months through Monday’s close, outpacing the S&P 500 Index’s 15% advance.

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Investors were anticipating a profit rebound as Ford plans to crank out more high-margin sport-utility vehicles and pickups after Republican-led moves to eliminate cash penalties for failing to meet fuel economy and emissions regulations, which is expected to save Ford billions. The regulatory reprieve in effect allows automakers to sell as many high-profit, low-mileage SUVs and pickups as they can build.

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“We’re seeing our profitability improve,” Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley told reporters on the sidelines of the Detroit Auto Show in January. “I’ve been here for five years as a CEO. I’m really looking forward to this year.”