Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week

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(Bloomberg) — Chicken is going to be harder to come by in markets from China to Europe after a case of bird flu was detected in top exporter Brazil. Summer is just around the corner in the Northern Hemisphere, prompting forecasts for hurricanes as well as predictions about gasoline demand in the US. And the Democratic Republic of the Congo — dubbed the “Saudi Arabia of cobalt” — is becoming a player in the trade war between China and the US.

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Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodity markets as the week gets underway.

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Chicken

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Chicken demand has been growing globally as consumers seek cheaper alternatives to pricey beef, but the supply of chicken now is under threat after the detection of bird flu in a Brazil farm. The case prompted shipments to be halted to top destinations as the world’s largest chicken exporter seeks to stop the deadly H5N1 strain from spreading. The bans shut down markets accounting for more than $4 billion a year in export revenues, or 40% of the total, according to government data.  

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Gasoline

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US gasoline demand has tumbled to a five-year seasonal low on a four-week average basis — a sudden reversal from recent trends that had seen consumption marching higher ahead of the summer driving season. The turnabout may snuff out some of the optimism that refiners and fuel sellers had going into the summer months and make it increasingly hard to be bullish on the road fuel.

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Natural Disasters

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June 1 marks the start of the six-month US hurricane season and the National Weather Service expects it to be above-average, with 13 to 19 named storms with winds of 39 mph (63 kph) or more predicted. Natural disasters around the world, including earthquakes, have cost $6.7 trillion since 1980, with only about one-third of the losses insured, according to Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurer. Adjusted for inflation, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 is still the costliest natural disaster. In 2024, more than 90% of the $320 billion in global losses were weather related, according to the reinsurer.

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Cobalt

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The Democratic Republic of the Congo, seeing opportunity in the US-China trade war, is wooing US President Donald Trump’s administration and in the process setting up a high-stakes gamble. The nation produces three-quarters of the world’s supply of the metal that is critical to the battery, defense and aerospace industries. But that title would not have been possible without investment from China, which has allowed Congo to triple its production of copper and boost cobalt output by almost as much in a decade. 

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Clean Energy

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The massive tax and spending bill approved by the US House of Representatives would be a “nightmare scenario” for US clean energy, according to BloombergNEF. Some key subsidies would end years earlier than originally expected, and many projects will need to begin construction almost immediately to qualify for credits. Meanwhile, fossil fuels will be cheaper for longer, threatening the transition to emission-free energy sources.

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