FIFA Club World Cup: Botafogo vs. Atletico Madrid odds, predictions

Atletico Madrid needs a win and some help on Monday afternoon if they want to advance to the Round of 16 at the FIFA Club World Cup.

Atleti are in third place in Group B with three points, three back of first-place Botafogo, and tied with Paris Saint-Germain, although PSG has the better goal difference.

There are two ways for Atletico Madrid to advance to the next round: They need to win by at least three goals AND have PSG defeat Seattle Sounders, or they need to earn more points against Botafogo than Les Parisiens do against Seattle.

The odds will be stacked against Los Colchoneros, but you can be confident that Diego Simeone will have his team ready to try and defy them on Monday afternoon.

Botafogo vs. Atlético Madrid betting preview

Botafogo has been one of the most impressive sides at the FIFA Club World Cup. The reigning Copa Libertadores champions defeated Seattle Sounders, 2-1, in their opening match, and then pulled off one of the biggest surprises of the tournament with a 1-0 win over PSG.

Botafogo’s defensive prowess is well known in South America, but now the whole world has taken notice.

The Brazilians held PSG to just 1.01 expected goals and zero big scoring chances on Thursday.

In that match, Botafogo sat deep and allowed PSG to control possession, but they packed the middle of the pitch and made it quite difficult for the champions of Europe to get any good looks.

It was a masterclass.

Atletico Madrid are not afraid of introducing chaos into their matches, and they’ll need to do just that to accomplish their mission on Monday.

Not only do they need a win, but they’ll likely need to make it a rout, considering PSG is a big favorite against Seattle in the other match.

Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone. AP

Botafogo vs. Atlético Madrid pick

Knowing they can sit deep and defend their way to a berth in the next round, I expect Botafogo to put everyone behind the ball in this match and look to catch an over-aggressive Atletico Madrid on the counter.

The oddsmakers have installed Atleti as a big favorite, but that’s likely because the market is reacting to the circumstances of this match. Bettors will almost always lean toward the side in a must-win situation.

That’s creating value on Botafogo, who should relish the stylistic setup of this match.

THE PLAY: Botafogo +380 (FanDuel) 

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.