5 hours ago
1
Don’t let the 3-1 series scoreline fool you, this best-of-seven contest between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators has been razor tight.
Three of the four games so far have gone to overtime, with Game 1, which ended 6-2 in favor of the Leafs, serving as the outlier in the latest installment of the Battle of Ontario.
The Maple Leafs remain a robust -1600 favorite to advance to Round 2 and currently sit at -164 odds to win a potential series-clinching Game 5 on Tuesday night.
Fanatics Sportsbook promo for the Stanley Cup playoffs
Fanatics Sportsbook is offering new users a $1,000 no sweat first bet sign-up bonus or a bet $30 and receive $300 in bonus bets promotion.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs Game 5 betting preview
Toronto has outscored Ottawa, 10-5, at 5-on-5 in this series, but the statistical data suggests the Sens have played much better than that scoreline suggests.
The Senators have registered 70 more shot attempts (242-172) and 15 more high-danger scoring chances (35-20) than the Leafs at 5-on-5 in this series, but Toronto has done a splendid job of eating rubber, and Anthony Stolarz has stood tall in goal when pucks do get on net.
Part of this is by design — the Leafs are happy to sit back, absorb, and then counter-punch — but it’s also encouraging for those hoping that the Sens have a chance to get back into this best-of-7.
The Ottawa Senators have registered 70 more shot attempts at 5-on-5 than the Toronto Maple Leafs. Getty ImagesSenators vs. Maple Leafs Game 5 pick
Driving play in the right direction is a good thing, but the Senators will need Linus Ullmark to be sharper in goal if they are to have a chance of getting this best-of-7 back to Ottawa for Game 6.
Ullmark was better in Game 4, but his overall numbers pale in comparison to Stolarz’s on the other end of the ice.
The numbers may suggest that the Maple Leafs are getting the breaks in this series, but it also seems that they’ve found the right recipe for success against the Sens.
Betting on the NHL?
- Check out the best NHL betting sites
- Read our expert guide on how to bet on the NHL
Toronto is happy to give up shots and possession, knowing that its star players don’t need a ton of opportunities to get on the board.
The Leafs have more paths to victory in this game, and with the Sens facing elimination we could see the Senators take a lot of risks if they are down late in the contest.
The price on Toronto to win by multiple goals looks appealing Tuesday evening.
The Play: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+150, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
New customers, 21+ and physically present in AZ, NJ, MI, PA. New customers who wager $10+ cash on any market with odds of -500 or longer are eligible to receive $100 in Bonus Bets each day for your first three 3 days. You must wager $10+ each day to be eligible for the Rewards each day. Terms apply – see Fanatics Sportsbook app.
English (US)