Falcons receive brutal 'too high' verdict on already bleak win projection

The Atlanta Falcons are going into the 2026 NFL season with uncertainty at the quarterback position between Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa.

Given Tagovailoa's struggles in joint practices and so far in the preseason, it's fair for fans to have big concerns about the team heading into the year. But according to Josh Kendall of The Athletic, they have a 7.1 projected win total.

While that's nothing overly impressive, it's not terrible. However, Kendall handed out a harsh verdict, calling that 7.1 projection "too high" for the Falcons.

Falcons' 7.1 projected win total is 'too high'

"Projected wins: 7.1. Verdict: Too high," Kendall writes. "It's been a tough summer for the Falcons."

Penix is still recovering from his injury, and Tagovailoa has struggled. Jake Strand has looked the best at the QB position, but he's not likely to be the starter this upcoming season, let alone make the 53-man roster.

Both of their first-round edge rushers from the 2025 NFL Draft are going to miss a lot of time. Jalon Walker is out due to a season-ending ACL tear, and James Pearce Jr. is out due to an eight-game suspension from the NFL.

While Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts are players worth getting excited about, and all three signed long-term deals with the franchise this offseason, they need a competent QB to move the ball down the field.

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Tagovailoa hasn't looked the part, and Penix is coming off another brutal injury. The defense is likely to be worse than it was last year due to injuries and the pressure to keep low-scoring games for a weaker offense.

A 7.1 projected win total might seem low for a team with as much star power as the Falcons, but Kendeall believes that's too high of a projection.

It's a clear sign of not believing in the quarterbacks, and it's hard to argue with such a belief. Tagovailoa and Penix are likely not the future of the QB spot in Atlanta.

But for at least the 2026 season, the Falcons are stuck with them. It could be a long season for the Falcons, and if they somehow make it to 7.1 wins, it would be a bit of a surprise, at least from Kendall's point of view.

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