EU Countries Agree on 90% Emissions Reduction Goal for 2040

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(Bloomberg) — European Union member states clinched a preliminary deal to reduce emissions by 90% through 2040 compared with 1990 levels, a move that bolsters the bloc’s climate leadership credentials ahead of the COP30 summit.

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The breakthrough was reached after more than 15 hours of negotiations between environment ministers that started on Tuesday morning in Brussels, according to people with knowledge of the discussions, who asked not to identified because the details are private. 

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“We believe we have the basis for a political deal,” said a spokesperson for Denmark, which chaired the meeting as the holder of a rotating EU presidency. “We expect to formally conclude a deal when we resume in a few hours.” Ministers will reconvene at 7:45 a.m. Brussels time on Wednesday.

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A deal paves the way for the EU to submit an updated climate pledge to the United Nations under the Paris Agreement, and for final negotiations on the pace and depth of a transition that will reverberate across Europe’s economy. 

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Dozens of world leaders, including from Europe, are meeting in Belem, Brazil, on Thursday for two days of climate talks, with formal negotiations beginning at the UN’s annual COP30 summit in the city on Nov. 10.

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A key element of the EU’s agreement during Tuesday’s talks was a push to increase the use of international credits generated under Article 6 of the Paris accord, the people said. The limit will be increased to 5% of the bloc’s baseline net emissions in 1990, compared with the 3% originally proposed by the European Commission. 

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Use of the credits would start with a five-year pilot phase in 2031, five years earlier than sought by the commission, and won’t be limited to sectors outside the EU carbon market.

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Denmark secured qualified-majority support for the interim goal after offering more flexibility for member states, according to the people.

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The EU already has two binding targets: net zero emissions in 2050 and a 55% cut by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. But the broad consensus on climate action that prevailed five years ago has fractured, giving way to trade protectionism and policies that prioritize lowering energy costs, and making the 2040 target a highly sensitive issue.

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Tuesday’s agreement will be the negotiating position of member states for the next stage of the legislative process: talks with the European Parliament and the European Commission about the final shape of the target. 

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To make the green transition more affordable for consumers and industries, member states won some assurances and flexibilities from the commission even before the ministerial meeting. Those included trade protections for steel and language on technical neutrality, a term often used to open the door to more nuclear power as demanded by France.

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Additional concessions were offered during the negotiations on Tuesday, the people said. They include a one-year delay to a new carbon market for transport and heating fuels to 2028. A group of countries had demanded the postponement of the cap-and-trade program on concerns it will boost energy prices and trigger a backlash from voters.

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A deal on the 2040 climate target will be the basis for the EU to submit a new pledge, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution, to the UN. The bloc has already missed key deadlines to update its NDC because of divisions among member states. So far, it’s settled for a statement giving emissions cuts between 66.3% and 72.5% by 2035 — a range that is under consideration by the ministers to become the final submission.

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(Updates with comment, details from third paragraph.)

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