ESPN projects David Bailey to have underwhelming rookie sack total for Jets

The New York Jets came into the 2026 NFL Draft with a big decision to make. They were likely choosing between Ohio State's Arvell Reese and Texas Tech's David Bailey at No. 2 overall.

Aaron Glenn and Darren Mougey went a safer route and took Bailey, the edge rusher who recorded 14.5 sacks in his final college season in 2025. He's an instant upgrade to the pass rusher group and will start right away for the Jets.

With such a player getting into action right away, it wouldn't be a surprise if Bailey posted some strong numbers in his rookie season. However, ESPN's Mike Clay projects a slightly different outcome in his rookie season.

Jets projected to get underwhelming David Bailey rookie season

"1. David Bailey, New York Jets: 7.6," Clay projected for Bailey's 2026 sack total. Bailey, coming off a 14.5 sack season, is projected for just 7.6 sacks in his rookie year.

While the NFL is a more challenging league, for a pass rush specialist like Bailey to record such a season would be a little underwhelming.

However, Clay pointed out how this projection, while underwhelming, would still be a very solid season for the Jets' No. 2 pick.

"In fact, each sack projection above would rank in the top 25 among first-round picks over the past five years," Clay writes. "All five edge rushers will likely be buys, but let's keep statistical expectations in check."

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Bailey recording 7.5 sacks in his rookie year would be one of the best marks for a rookie in the last half-decade.

While it might not compare to Micah Parsons' 13 sack total in 2021 or James Pearce Jr.'s 10.5 sacks last year for the Atlanta Falcons, it's not a bad mark.

If the Jets' No. 2 overall pick put up 14.5 sacks in his rookie year, he would tie Javon Kearse for the NFL record for sacks in a rookie season.

So, while a 7.6 projection might not seem all that great, it wouldn't be a terrible way for the No. 2 overall pick to begin his NFL career, even if it's underwhelming.

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