Egypt’s Geopolitical Balancing Act Wins Over Trump — For Now

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There was intense pressure from foreign governments, an Egyptian government official conceded, adding that Cairo did not and will not succumb. Displacement of Palestinians into the Sinai is a red line for Egypt, and we stick to our positions, the official said.

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Egypt’s global engagement beyond the US has been less boisterous, but just as telling. Beijing is stepping up investment in manufacturing and green energy facilities by the Suez Canal and helping develop Egypt’s new administrative capital. On the Mediterranean coast, Russia works on the country’s first nuclear power plant. Nearby, the United Arab Emirates is crafting an entire new city after a $35 billion tourism investment.

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Egypt even manages to balance ties with traditional rivals. El-Sisi speaks regularly to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, while keeping channels open to Ukraine. Egypt has rebuilt ties with Turkey and Iran, while simultaneously keeping strong relations with Greece, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

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This kind of friends-to-all approach has helped Cairo tackle its worst economic crisis in decades. It’s also a striking example of how savvy mid-size countries are finding ways to steer through the uncertainty of a multipolar world order by using their unique selling points.

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An Arabic-language page on Egypt’s Foreign Ministry website acknowledges that regional and international developments, plus changed domestic priorities, “have forced Egypt to create ‘new circles’ in foreign policy and adopt a ‘strategic balance’ in managing various international players.” It doesn’t elaborate.

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A country of some 110 million people at the heart of a turbulent Middle East, Egypt has long seen its stance as achieving stability in the region and contributing to global security and peace.

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That in turn means major powers have an interest in maintaining close relations with Cairo, at least in the Egyptian telling. Elsewhere, it’s been called a “too big to fail” logic that Cairo leverages to its advantage.  

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In the government official’s words, Egypt seeks to build partnerships and maintain good relations with everyone — which includes coordinating with like-minded nations in forums like BRICS or the Group of 20 — but not at the price of appeasement.

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Like any nation, Egypt could yet suffer the vagaries of Trump’s shifting world stance. For all his recent praise of El-Sisi, Trump has threatened BRICS members with additional trade tariffs, and is showing signs of losing patience with Egyptian ally Russia over its refusal to halt its war on Ukraine. Egypt’s signing of a co-operation agreement to use China’s BeiDou global navigation system, a rival to the US GPS and Europe’s Galileo systems, is another potential flashpoint down the road.The global context may be new, but striking a balance has been the aspiration of modern Egypt since at least 1952 when Gamal Abdel-Nasser and a group of military officers ousted the British-backed monarchy. Along with leaders from India, Yugoslavia and Indonesia, he founded the Non-Aligned Movement — the bloc of developing countries seeking an independent course between the US and Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War.

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Maintaining strict neutrality proved elusive. While the 1956 Suez Crisis — wherein Israel, Britain and France invaded the canal zone — calmed after both superpowers demanded a withdrawal, Washington increasingly saw Nasser’s steps of recognizing China and buying weapons from Czechoslovakia as indicating Communist sympathies.

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The US, which had been poised to give financial support to build the High Dam on the Nile River, now demurred. Instead, Moscow stepped in to fund a project seen as vital to Egypt’s economic development. Today, a vast Arab-Soviet Friendship monument, shaped like a lotus flower, still stands near the almost 70-year-old megaproject in Aswan, southern Egypt.

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After wars with Israel in 1967 and 1973, in which the Soviets gave tacit backing, Egypt under President Anwar Sadat dramatically shifted to the US camp. That opened up the economy, secured regular military aid from Washington and — controversially — brought a 1979 peace deal with the Jewish state. Under Sadat’s successor, Hosni Mubarak, US ties only increased.

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Fast forward to October 2024, when Russia hosted the BRICS summit in Kazan — Egypt’s first as a full member — and Putin hailed Egypt as Moscow’s “long-standing and reliable partner.” Addressing him as “my dear friend,” Putin told El-Sisi that efforts were under way to draft a free-trade agreement between the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union and the Arab republic.