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(Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank will achieve its inflation goal in the months ahead, though must remain circumspect in the face of high uncertainty, according to Governing Council member Peter Kazimir.
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“Inflation is approaching its target, and I’m confident that we’ll reach it within the next few months,” the Slovak official said Tuesday in an op-ed. “However, we remain cautious. We must, particularly under today’s volatile and often chaotic conditions. We must remain vigilant and agile.”
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The remarks suggest a speedier arrival at 2% inflation for the ECB, which at its last round of quarterly projections in March said that the milestone would only likely be met in early 2026. June’s outlook is likely to be crucial as officials plan their next steps.
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Policymakers last week lowered interest rates for the seventh time since last June as trade frictions threaten to derail the region’s economic recovery. But due to the extreme uncertainty, they’re cagey on what they’ll do next. Investors are more certain, pricing two or three more cuts by year-end.
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Kazimir warned that even by the next rate-setting meeting in June, the situation is unlikely to be fully clear and will require further time to assess risks adequately.
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“We should gain more clarity on these developments in the coming weeks,” he said. “But achieving complete certainty by June remains unattainable.”
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Backing the idea that inflation will abate more quickly, an ECB survey published earlier Tuesday showed greater confidence among companies that wage growth will retreat further — reaching 2.5% in 2026. Its poll of professional forecasters, however, revealed a small increase in expectations for consumer-price gains in 2025 and 2026.
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Also commenting on inflation, Finnish central-bank chief Olli Rehn said in a speech that tariffs could weigh in the near term.
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“In the short term, the impact on euro-area consumer price growth is to the downside,” he said in a speech. “If China redirects its exports toward Europe due to excessively high tariffs by the US, if energy prices fall and if the euro strengthens, then tariffs won’t cause inflation to accelerate in the euro area.”
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