ECB Is in ‘Good Position’ After June Rate Hike, Moulin Says

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(Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank is in a comfortable situation after last month’s interest-rate increase as the falling oil price eases price pressures in the euro zone, Governing Council member Emmanuel Moulin said. 

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While it’s too early to say what will happen at the next two meetings in July and September, officials made clear that “we were not entering into a new cycle of hikes,” the Bank of France governor said in an interview with Bloomberg Television at the Rencontres Economiques conference in Aix-en-Provence. 

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“We are not into forward guidance, so we’ll decide when we’ll be there,” Moulin said. “But what we see is at this moment, at this juncture, we’re in a good position. And the balance of risk is in the right place.”

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ECB policymakers were unanimous in backing last month’s 25 basis point rate hike as they saw surging oil prices spreading throughout the economy. But the Iran peace deal and surprisingly sharp slowdown in inflation are sowing division over what to do next. 

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Some policymakers see risks that the bout of energy cost pressure — even after it fades — could yet transmit to food, services and wage demands. Meanwhile, others cite the recent changing backdrop as a reason for the ECB to hold rates for now.

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Investors have also pared bets on further tightening this year, while Bloomberg Economic now reckons the peak in inflation has passed.

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“The fact that the oil price decreases will soften the inflation on services,” Moulin said, adding that “we don’t really see second-round effects at the moment.” 

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—With assistance from Caroline Connan and Nick Heubeck.

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