Early Sweet 16 predictions: Picks for all eight March Madness games

The Illinois Fighting Illini were having a blast through two rounds. Getty Images

Favorites dominated the field during the Round of 32 of March Madness.

As we look to the Sweet 16, is it wise to expect more of the same going forward?

The time of the Cinderella making a run to the national championship appears to be over, and you can thank NIL and the transfer portals for that.

There’s just one double-digit seed still in the field in No. 11 seed Texas.

Here are eight burning hot takes as we delve into the 16 remaining squads in the NCAA Tournament.

2026 March Madness Sweet 16 predictions

Texas vs. Purdue

The Longhorns have impressive wins over BYU and Gonzaga, who were both ranked higher than them at KenPom by a wide margin, though Purdue is a different animal entirely.

The Boilermakers will pose a devastating interior problem for the Longhorns as a clear top-10 team.

This would be a massive upset, and my model shows value on the Boilermakers -6.5, with a projected score of 77.75-69.40.

PICK: Purdue -6.5 (-112, DraftKings)

Iowa vs. Nebraska

A razor-thin matchup as the Big Ten runner-up Nebraska Cornhuskers face off against the Iowa Hawkeyes, whom they eliminated in overtime during the Big Ten Tournament.

We’ve seen this matchup twice already, with Iowa winning the first clash at home in February.

The Hawkeyes’ offensive rhythm will be the key as they often go cold from the field. I’ll take the Cornhuskers to keep on shucking along.

PICK: Nebraska -1.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Arkansas coach John Calipari has his team rolling. Getty Images

Arkansas vs. Arizona

The world is on John Calipari and Arkansas on Thursday night as his squad is playing with confidence on both sides of the ball.

The Razorbacks’ offense isn’t one to be trifled with, but let’s not discount Arizona too much here.

The Wildcats are absolutely loaded and won’t bow down to Calipari’s No. 5-rated offense by countering with their No. 2 ranked defense.

PICK: Under 167.5 total points (-110, bet365)

Illinois vs. Houston

No team looked like they were having more fun than Illinois through two rounds, as they embarrassed two overmatched units in Penn and VCU.

It was an aerial assault, as they couldn’t stop drilling long-range 3-pointers.

Those won’t come easy against the Houston Cougars, but don’t expect them to stop firing.

KenPom has Illinois as the No. 6 team in the country, with Houston No. 4. Tight matchup, but I like Illinois’ size and ability to shoot the ball from distance.

PICKL Illinois moneyline (+140, Fanatics Sportsbook)

St. John’s vs. Duke

Duke’s injuries piled up on them, making them vulnerable to a No. 16 seed Siena team, but with extra rest, they may get back guard Caleb Foster.

If he returns, which has been labeled as an outside shot, it would be a boon for the Blue Devils.

It’s really tough to make a pick on this game until we see what Duke’s lineups look like.

PICK: Wait to see if Duke gets healthy; If not, St. John’s moneyline.

Alabama vs. Michigan

The dominant Michigan Wolverines get a date with Nate Oats’ squad in the sweet 16.

The Crimson Tide aren’t a team to be trifled with, ranking No. 3 in the nation on offense, per KenPom.

Alabama needs to get hot from distance in order to get Michigan on the backfoot. Easier said than done of course.

PICK: Alabama first half ATS when released

Tom Izzo has Michigan State playing well entering the Sweet 16. AP

Michigan State vs. UConn

UConn comes in against Tom Izzo’s group as favorites in a semi-surprising spread.

The Spartans have played well overall, defeating the Louisville Cardinals handily in the Round of 32. KenPom ranks Tom Izzo’s group ahead of Dan Hurley’s and the eye test tells me something similar.

UConn is beat up and despite shooting better in the Round of 32, their jump-shot confidence is a bit too low for me to trust against the Spartans’ defense.

PICK: Michigan State moneyline (+110, BetMGM)

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We’re taking a shot at the underdog on Friday night. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Tennessee vs. Iowa State

To wrap up the Sweet 16, the Tennessee Volunteers look to spring the upset against a stout Iowa State defense that’s rated No.5 in the nation, via KenPom.

Bart Torvik has this game even closer, with major respect being given to the Volunteers as the No. 12 team in the nation, with the Cyclones rated No. 7.

We’re taking a shot at the underdog here as Tennessee just eliminated the ACC runner-up Virginia Cavaliers.

PICK: Tennessee moneyline (+165, Caesars)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.