Dolphins’ risky Tua Tagovailoa- Malik Willis swap can be inflection point for both QBs

The Dolphins thanked Tua for his service and welcomed Willis. 

In a transformative first day of free agency under a new regime, the Dolphins let it be known that Tua Tagovailoa will be released later this week despite an NFL-record $99.2 million dead salary cap charge. 

Miami then quickly pivoted to Malik Willis as its new starting quarterback when he agreed to a reported three-year, $67.5 million contract that includes $45 million guaranteed 

Tagovailoa wasn’t out of work for long — or at all? He zeroed in on the Falcons as his new home on a one-year contract, according to ESPN, even though he won’t officially hit the free agent market until Wednesday. 

The Dolphins are signing Malik Willis. Getty Images

There were two obvious landing spots offering the comfort of familiarity to Willis, who spent the past two seasons as Jordan Love’s backup under head coach Matt LaFleur with the Packers. He could have joined the Cardinals — coached by Matt’s brother, Mike LaFleur — or be part of the Green Bay exodus headed to Miami, including general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley. 

With the Dolphins, Willis will have another Kyle Shanahan protégé (offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik) calling plays, so the system should be similar to the LaFleurs’. 

It’s still a gamble by Miami, however, considering that Willis has made just six career starts in four seasons. He fell to the No. 86 pick of a 2022 draft with only one quarterback (Kenny Pickett) in the first two rounds, and then was traded by the Titans after two seasons. 

Now he is deemed to be worth $22.5 million per year — the No. 22 biggest average annual value on a quarterback contract. 

“That’s pretty wild, isn’t it?” one NFL offensive assistant said. “I wouldn’t have taken that risk.” 

Tua Tagovailoa is signing with the Falcons. AP

But, as one NFL scout pointed out, “the general manager and head coach have seen him every day for two years,” so the conviction is stronger with them than other teams would have felt. Willis was 30-for-35 passing last season in extensive duty against the Bears and Ravens, plus a brief pinch-hit touchdown pass against the Giants. 

“I don’t think he fell to pick No. 86, either. It’s where he should’ve been based on college tape,” the scout told The Post. “If you look at the years past and how he has grown in that offense — even in his preseason tape — he’s shown that he is taking strides. Besides the arm talent and ability to escape in the pocket, it’s the ball placement and decision-making he showed this year even in a short amount of time — two games against two good teams.” 

But did the Dolphins get better in 2026? Or just reshuffle the deck for the sake of a fresh start? 

Has Tank for Tua — the old saying during the 2019 season — been replaced by Tank for Arch (Manning) in 2027? 

Given his age and résumé, Tagovailoa, 28, is arguably the most desirable quarterback changing teams this offseason. He has a 44-32 career record with 120 touchdown passes compared to 59 interceptions and different single seasons leading the league in completion percentage and passing yards. 

The downside is that Tagovailoa has a long history of concussions and is coming off a season in which he was benched for rookie Quinn Ewers. 

Follow The Post’s live updates of all the signings, rumors and deals from NFL free agency.

The Falcons could have Tagovailoa compete with fellow left-hander Michael Penix Jr. for the starting job. Penix has been a disappointment through two seasons as the former No. 8 overall pick and has a long injury history of knee injuries dating to college. 

Tagovailoa threw the most famous pass of his career — a 2018 national championship-winning walk-off overtime touchdown strike to Alabama teammate DeVonta Smith — in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. 

Like the Dolphins, the Falcons will take on a big dead-money charge to release a veteran quarterback (Kirk Cousins) on Wednesday. 

The Dolphins tried and failed to drum up a trade market for Tagovailoa. 

Instead, Miami will designate the former Pro Bowler as a post-June 1 cut, meaning it can spread the cap charge over two years, with $67.4 million dead money in 2026 and $31.8 million dead money in 2027. He was one year into a four-year, $212.4 million extension. 

Because the Dolphins owe Tagovailoa a $54 million guaranteed salary in 2026, he can sign for the minimum with the Falcons. 

“I would take that chance,” the offensive assistant said. “What do you have to lose? Maybe you get him at his best — quick-feeding your weapons.”