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(Bloomberg) — The dollar fell the most in nearly a month after after a New York Times report said Iranian operatives had offered to discuss terms for ending the war.
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The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended earlier losses, weakening as much as 0.4% before paring the move. The gauge had surged 1.4% over the previous two sessions as the spiraling Middle East conflict reignited inflationary fears and drove demand for haven assets.
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The report should be taken “with a grain of salt,” said Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, a strategist at Mizuho International Plc. given the attempt to negotiate was reportedly made a day after the attacks began, while US officials were described as being skeptical of the approach.
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Iran Delays State Funeral for Deceased Supreme Leader: TOPLive
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Options pricing is signaling dollar strength over the coming week and ahead of US data releases, which include ISM services index later Wednesday and the February US jobs report due Friday.
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The dollar emerged as a key haven for investors after the US and Israel began airstrikes on Iran over the weekend. Its gains have served as a counterpoint to doubts that have cropped up about the greenback as the world’s preeminent reserve currency, stifling the “debasement” narrative that had cropped up amid President Donald Trump’s trade wars.
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Dollar Reclaims Ultimate Haven Role as War, Inflation Angst Grow
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The greenback has also benefited from expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to delay its next interest-rate cut as surging energy prices fuel worries over inflation. The first reduction is now only fully priced by September compared to July at Friday’s close.
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The fighting has showed no signs of abating five days after it erupted, with Israel and Iran continuing to exchange airstrikes and missile fire. The oil market has been pitched into turmoil as the war forces major producers to shut output and all-but stopping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Still, Kamakshya Trivedi, chief FX and EM strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said on Bloomberg TV that inflation will trend down if there is a quick resolution to the war, allowing the Fed to deliver two interest-rate cuts this year.
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(Updates with options pricing, analyst quote.)
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