Dodgers betting on short-term dominance leading to long-term success

Short term, reasons for optimism are obvious around the Dodgers. 

The club is running things back with virtually the same core that spearheaded consecutive World Series championships over the last two seasons. Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz were added in blockbuster free-agent signings this winter. And as prohibitive title favorites again in 2026, the Dodgers, who are enjoying an already-polished golden era of baseball, could be primed for an even brighter shine.

The more uncertain question hanging over the club now: How long can it keep this level of dominance going?

After all, for all the Dodgers’ star-level talent, their roster is aging, with half of their projected lineup already 33 or older. Within the next two years, foundational pieces including Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy and Teoscar Hernández –– plus, very likely Tucker, if he exercises his opt-out clause –– will all be out of contract, creating key voids across the diamond. At some point, their lucrative long-term commitments to Mookie Betts (who is signed through his age-39 season), Will Smith (signed through his age-38 season) and maybe even Shohei Ohtani (signed through his age-38 season) could start to feel more burdensome than beneficial, too.

Mix in the looming threat of a salary cap that MLB owners are expected to push for during next winter’s CBA negotiations and the Dodgers’ future could soon face renewed challenges.

“You have to account for some age,” manager Dave Roberts said recently. “This team is not gonna be together forever.”

This, however, is where club officials have voiced confidence in the team’s extended time horizon –– citing their dual objectives to maximize the championship window they are in now without, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman often terms it, “falling off a cliff” further down the line.

“You don’t want to be flippant about what we have right now in this moment in time,” Friedman said last week. “That being said, we have to try to balance it with three, four, five years out.”

If MLB’s current financial structure were to remain unchanged, of course, the Dodgers’ long-term plans would be simple. They could likely maintain their historic spending levels. They could fill holes with free-agent signings. They could lock a new core of stars up to long-term deals.

Alas, that’s unlikely to be the case.

With the league’s current CBA set to expire Dec. 1, a labor battle is already beginning to brew between MLB and its players’ union. The industry expectation is that the owners –– in part as a reaction to the Dodgers’ financial dominance of the sport –– will push for a salary cap. And even if they don’t get one, it’s possible that harsher luxury-tax penalties or other mechanisms to curb spending could be introduced.

To this point, the Dodgers are still waiting to see what the future will look like.

They have baked some of the uncertainty into their recent decision-making process. For example, the team’s general preference this winter was to avoid any free-agent contracts of more than three years, per sources, in part because of a growing expectation that if the league were to institute a salary cap, it would come with a multiyear adjustment period to allow bigger-spending teams like them to gradually become compliant.

At the same time, several key organizational voices have downplayed the impact a salary cap or altered economic landscape would make on the team’s ability to remain an annual contender.

“We have an organization that whatever rules or regulations, constructs are put in front of us, we’re going to dominate,” Roberts said at last month’s winter meetings, after saying publicly he would be OK with a salary cap. “Let us know the landscape, and then I’ll bet on our organization.”

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“I don’t know what the rules may be,” team president Stan Kasten echoed. “But I think we have an organization staffed with people who can help us contend every year.”

The primary source of that optimism –– in a salary-cap world or not –– is rooted in the Dodgers’ highly touted current farm system, which is widely considered among the strongest in the sport. 

While the club lacks an abundance of surefire future stars (outfielder Josue De Paula, a consensus top-25 prospect in the sport, is the biggest potential exception), rival evaluators have highlighted the overall depth and upside of the Dodgers’ current pipeline. Of the various top-100 prospect rankings published by baseball outlets in recent weeks, the Dodgers have had anywhere from four to seven players ranked.

In the outfield alone, the Dodgers have up to eight names they forecast as potential big-league options in the next 2-3 years (including De Paula, Eduardo Quintero, Zyhir Hope, Mike Sirota, James Tibbs III, Zach Ehrhard and recent top-round picks Charles Davalan and Kendall George). That was another reason why, when it came to their negotiations with Tucker specifically, they preferred a shorter-term deal; betting that at least a couple of their up-and-coming prospects will prove to be productive MLB hitters once Tucker is gone.

“Infusing young players over that time is going to be really important for us to be able to maintain (this level of success),” Friedman said.

That sentiment would become even more true if MLB stiffens its spending rules. In that environment, developing young talent would be crucial to building cost-effective roster depth. It would also provide opportunities on the trade market, which would only figure to grow in importance.

“There are many people who value our minor-league depth, right at the top of the industry,” Kasten said. “And we’re gonna need that.”

Indeed, for the Dodgers, it all comes back to the fear of “the cliff” –– and making sure the team’s current dynasty, 13-year playoff streak and seemingly unstoppable run of annual dominance continues for as long as possible.

Regardless of what MLB’s future rules might be.

“There’s just so much unknown around that,” Friedman said. “I’ve now been through a lot of CBAs and have tried to get cute leading into a CBA. Like, ‘OK, this is where it might be going.’ (Right now), we have no idea. We are sitting in the cheap seats on that. So for us, it’s about, whatever the rules are, reading and reacting to it and doing everything we can within the rules to be as good as we can be.”