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The Boston Bruins are actually in a really good spot when it comes to the Toronto Maple Leafs' first-round pick that could convey to Boston.
And that's true even if the Leafs keep their pick during Tuesday night's NHL Draft lottery.
The Maple Leafs traded their 2026 first-round pick to Boston in last year's Brandon Carlo deal, but the pick was top-five protected. That means if it's a pick 1-5 in this year's draft, the Leafs keep it.
If it falls to Nos. 6 or 7, which is about a 58% combined outcome chance, the Bruins get the pick in the 2026 draft instead of Toronto.
But what happens if the Leafs keep their pick? It's actually not bad news for Boston.
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Do Bruins get a pick from Maple Leafs no matter what?
That's the good news: The Bruins get a pick from Toronto no matter what. It's just a matter of which pick.
If it's outside the top-five in 2026, it goes to the Bruins, and that completes the final layer of the Carlo trade.
If it's inside the top-five, the Maple Leafs keep their first-round pick in 2026. But in that scenario, Toronto conveys its 2027 first-rounder to Boston, and that'll be unprotected, meaning it could end up anywhere on the board.
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So there's an outcome where the Leafs pick fifth in 2026 but then the Bruins pick even higher in 2027 if Toronto has another bad season.
The Bruins will make a first-round pick thanks to the Carlo trade, and at this point, they're just waiting to see which year it'll come.
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