Daniel Jones' breakout season came with one major warning sign

Daniel Jones looked like one of the NFL's biggest success stories during the first half of the 2025 season. By the end of the year, injuries and regression had changed the conversation entirely.

The Indianapolis Colts quarterback opened the season at an elite level. Through seven games, Jones led the league in dropback success rate at 56.1% and EPA per dropback at 0.30 while completing 71.0% of his passes and averaging 7.9 yards per dropback. According to ESPN's analysis, he was producing at a level far above anything he had shown during his previous six seasons.

Much of that success came under head coach Shane Steichen, whose offense appeared to maximize Jones' strengths. The early results suggested Indianapolis had found an answer at quarterback after years of uncertainty.

The problem was that one key number never looked sustainable.

Jones was thriving against pressure despite a career history that suggested the opposite. Through seven weeks, he led the league in EPA per dropback when pressured, and his pressure-to-sack ratio dropped to 8.6% after averaging 23.3% during his time with the Giants. According to ESPN, those figures began moving back toward his career norms as the season progressed.

That shift became visible in games against Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Atlanta, where Jones started taking sacks at a much higher rate. The Colts still had time to adjust, but they never received the opportunity to find answers.

Jones fractured his fibula before Week 12 and later suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in Week 14 against Jacksonville. The injuries ended a season that had already begun showing signs of regression.

The breakout was real. The production was not likely to remain at an MVP level. Even so, Jones showed enough in Steichen's system to prove he can be an effective starter if he returns healthy. The challenge now is whether he can reach that level again after an Achilles recovery.

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