Dallas Mavericks may have turned 1.8 percent odds into billion-dollar swing with looming Cooper Flagg No. 1 pick

The Dallas Mavericks might have just flipped their greatest gamble into a generational win.

Months after dealing Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers — a trade that sent shockwaves through the NBA and left Dallas fans furious — the Mavericks defied the odds Monday night by winning the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery. Their chances? Just 1.8%. Their reward? The right to draft Duke superstar Cooper Flagg, a 17-year-old phenom already being discussed as a franchise savior.

For a team desperate to recover from trading one of the league’s top three players to its most popular franchise, the timing couldn’t have been more dramatic — or more convenient.

Even before the lottery results were revealed, ESPN’s Adam Schefter shared that one NBA executive had estimated the value of winning the No. 1 pick this year could be “a minimum of $500 million and maybe up to $1 billion” for the franchise lucky enough to land it.

The Mavericks just cashed in.

Flagg is widely viewed as the most hyped American prospect since Zion Williamson. His marketability, combined with his unique two-way skill set and projected stardom, has NBA owners and executives salivating over what he could mean both on the court and financially.

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There’s no ignoring the raised eyebrows, either. After Dallas dealt Dončić to the Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a 2029 first-round pick, their playoff hopes quickly vanished — landing them in the lottery. Then, despite having the 10th-best odds, they leapfrogged 9 teams to land the top pick.

“I’m not a big conspiracy theorist,” Joe Pompliano wrote, “but it seems awfully convenient that the Mavericks traded Luka to the NBA’s biggest market and then got Cooper Flagg in return months later.”

Even Mavericks CEO Rick Welts couldn’t help but reflect on the surreal nature of the moment. “I was in charge of the NBA draft lottery 40 years ago when Patrick Ewing won,” Welts told Ben Golliver of The Washington Post. “I've been doing conspiracy theory stories ever since. This is very surreal, personally."

Regardless of what anyone believes, the facts remain: Dallas bet big by trading Luka Dončić. And now, with Cooper Flagg looming as the next face of the franchise — and potentially the league — the Mavericks may have just turned one of the riskiest moves in NBA history into a billion-dollar blessing.