College football's next unexpected NIL problem is here

For years interested parties debated the pros and cons of introducing the concept of paying players. For a very long time, paying college football players was met with significant resistance. With many believing removing the ‘amateur’ status would ruin the sport.

Certain aspects of college football have changed because of NIL and the transfer portal. Players are leaving programs more frequently, money players are paid influencing decisions as they never have before, programs with money are beating programs with a track record. Which some fans think has ruined the sport.

Different doesn’t always mean worse. The new world of college football will make the overall product better. It will create a dynamic where more than the same top 5-8 blue blood programs will have a real chance to win. It will also continue to evolve more like a pro league than the college football we used to know.

The introduction of paying players brought issues that many anticipated. However, a college football version of ‘institutionalized’ probably was not on the list of anticipated issues.

The scales have flipped for top players entering the NFL

When NIL was approved, an opposition to leaving for the NFL was not something anticipated. Most college football players aspire to go to the NFL. Many base their recruitment on which program gives them the best chance to make it to the league.

In this case, players are not getting comfortable in their setting because decisions are made for them, food is provided and shelter is unchanged (as it is when inmates become institutionalized). The difference is not comfort within routine; it’s about money and future situation.

For the longest time it was understood that the best players in the country would end up going to the worst NFL situations. Players did not have an issue with it for two reasons. It was a lifelong dream to do so and the money the NFL pays would be life changing for not only the player but his family as well.

Insert NIL and that dynamic has changed. The best players in college football make the most money. Arch Manning ($7M), Jeremiah Smith ($4M), LaNorris Sellers ($4M), DJ Lagway ($4M), Darian Mensah ($3M-Duke, $6M with Miami).

Long before NIL, the NFL fixed their own rookie pay problem. In 2011 the NFL moved to slotted rookie salaries. Up until then, each No. 1 pick would get 5-10% more than the previous year’s No. 1 pick. In 2010, Sam Bradford signed a six-year, $78M contract.

The issue was he had more total cash value than Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Cam Newton. The most guaranteed money is history at that point. A higher salary per season average than Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford.

Fast forward to today and that is no longer the case. We now live in a world where the best college players have the earning potential at or above what the NFL currently pays rookies. The only draft picks that still out pay the top college football players is the top 5 picks.

The next problem college football faces are lawsuits

Almost five years into the NIL era and the lawsuit aspect is already prevalent. The NFL money vs college football money is no longer separated by a Grand Canyon sized gap.

If a player does not love their draft projection, does not love the group of teams they are likely to be drafted to or doesn’t feel they are ready to make that jump, they don’t have to. The money is good enough for top prospects that there is no perceived rush to leave.

Consider Arch Manning. Manning has two years of eligibility remaining. He could’ve declared for the 2026 NFL Draft. He chose not to. Primarily from a developmental standpoint. In 2026, Manning will make as much as the No. 7 overall NFL Draft pick or better.

The new problem will be players who want to stay in college, but due to NCAA rules have limited or expired eligibility. There are three names very familiar to the 2025 college football season who have sued the NCAA to remain a college football player longer than intended.

In 2024 Diego Pavia sued the NCAA, challenging how JUCO years count against Division 1 eligibility. Joey Aguilar is currently in the final stages of a lawsuit against the NCAA seeking an eighth year of eligibility. Within the last week, Trinidad Chambliss won his lawsuit against the NCAA and will play for Ole Miss in 2026.

This issue is not an idea on the horizon, it’s here now. For those players who are not expected to get drafted in the top 5-10 picks, lawsuits could prove to be the next play called.

Regardless of the eventual solution, player lawsuits are going to be the next hurdle to get over. What cannot remain is a system that has rules and policies that can easily be undone or overruled by a frequency of lawsuits. The alternative is players expected to play for four or five seasons, suing the NCAA for an eighth or ninth year of eligibility. It’s a good gig, but the rule of law needs to preempt lawsuits.

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