College football coach hot seat rankings: Bill Belichick, Luke Fickell most likely to be fired in 2026

Preseason coaching hot seat lists in college football grow shorter and shorter each year because schools generally don’t wait to pull the trigger. Firings in October and early November are no longer surprising, and with the earlier signing period, almost every change is made by the first week of December. Athletic directors do not stick with struggling coaches unless there is a buyout associated with firing a coach that becomes paralyzing for an athletic department. 

So the question becomes: If a prohibitive buyout is protecting a coach from being fired, is that coach really on the hot seat? At some point, it becomes more costly for the school to stay with a losing coach than it does to pay the buyout.

There are a number of schools that may be forced into making a coaching decision sooner rather than later this fall. And the list kicks off with a team in action Week 0 in Ireland.

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College Football Coach Hot Seats, 2026

Bill Belichick, North Carolina (1 year, 4-8)

In addition to the off-field distractions surrounding the program, with general manager Michael Lombardi on administrative leave during an ongoing investigation and Belichick’s girlfriend Jordon Hudson filing FOIA requests for UNC’s internal communications, there are plenty of on-field problems as well. Defensive coordinator Steve Belichick is on indefinite medical leave, the roster is very freshman-heavy and not one UNC player was voted to the 27-player All-ACC preseason team. 

And the schedule? Three of the home games are against ranked teams (Miami, Notre Dame, Louisville), plus there are road games at the two teams that played for the ACC title game last year in Virginia and Duke, and trips to Clemson, Pitt and Ireland to face TCU. Do not expect the Heels to be favored in any of those games.

Belichick was guaranteed the first $30 million of his five-year, $50 million contract. As tough as a pill as it might be to swallow, UNC is going to have to cut the cord if things play out how it looks like they are going to play out and start over.

Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (3 years, 17-21)

During a second straight losing season, Luke Fickell was given a vote of confidence by athletic director Chris McIntosh in October that pledged more NIL support for the football program. Unfortunately for Fickell, McIntosh left Wisconsin in April for a job in the Big Ten office, and now Fickell will need to prove himself to Shawn Eichorst, who comes in from Texas. Eichorst’s last AD job was at Nebraska, where he replaced Bo Pelini with Mike Riley in a controversial move.

Wisconsin has a difficult opener against No. 4 Notre Dame at Lambeau Field, but the Badgers miss Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon on the Big Ten schedule. Fickell, who arrived at Wisconsin after having won 53 games in his final five seasons at Cincinnati, will not survive a third straight losing season.

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Dave Aranda, Baylor (6 years, 36-37)

In the six seasons before Aranda arrived, Baylor was 47-31 with five bowl appearances and the Bears were coming off an 11-3 season that included a Sugar Bowl berth. A sub-.500 record was not what was expected when they hired the former LSU defensive coordinator. Aranda did reach the Sugar Bowl in 2021, but his other five seasons have been somewhat underwhelming. Complicating factors, the AD who hired Aranda is no longer at Baylor. Mack Rhoades stepped down due to personal reasons in December and has been replaced by Dave McNamee. With Baylor going 22-28 the last four seasons, there will be pressure on McNamee to make a change if there is not a bounce-back season.

Aranda brought in Florida transfer QB DJ Lagway, who struggled last season but has five-star talent. The Bears open with Auburn in Atlanta, and the back end of the schedule features three teams in the AP preseason Top 25 in BYU, Texas Tech and Houston.

Mike Locksley, Maryland (8 years, 37-49)

Here’s another coach who must impress a new athletic director. Jim Smith arrived in May as the Terps’ new AD, and he must evaluate a football program that has gone 1-8 in the Big Ten the past two seasons. Maryland has had 14 players drafted in the last four years, but is 24-26 in that time.

Quarterback Malik Washington showed promise as a freshman, throwing for 2,963 yards and running for 303 more. On the other side of the ball, Maryland was No. 16 in total defense in the Big Ten, giving up over 400 yards per game.

Locksley only has two years remaining on his contract. A winning record against a schedule that avoids Michigan, Indiana and Oregon might be the minimum for Locksley to get another year. 

Mike Norvell, Florida State (6 years, 38-34)

We can all agree Mike Norvell had Florida State at the top of the sport in 2023 when the Seminoles went 13-0 and won the ACC before the program cratered with the College Football Playoff snub. It earned him an eight-year, $84 million contract, primarily to keep him out of Tuscaloosa after Nick Saban retired that offseason.

We can also all agree that Norvell has had four losing seasons in six years in Tallahassee, which is more losing seasons than any FSU coach has had there since Bill Peterson had four from 1960-70.

Norvell’s buyout has been viewed as prohibitive, with 85 percent of the remaining money due if he is let go. That means FSU would be on the hook for $51 million if it let him go after this season, and Florida State is trying to save up some cash to pay whatever the exit fee might be to leave the ACC in the next few years.

All of which leads to the question – when can you afford NOT to pay the buyout? FSU’s over/unders are posted at either 5.5 or 6.5, with four ranked teams on the schedule (SMU, Alabama, Louisville, Miami), plus Clemson and Florida. Ashton Daniels takes over at quarterback after having mixed results at Stanford and Auburn. There is not a lot of optimism for FSU to pull out of its funk.

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Lincoln Riley, USC (4 years, 35-18)

Lincoln Riley made the four-team College Football Playoff three times in his first four years at Oklahoma. He is 0-for-4 in Los Angeles, even with the field being expanded to 12 teams the last two seasons. That is not the return on investment USC was expecting when they gave him a reported nine-figure contract.

Here are the black marks on the Riley tenure at USC – no conference titles, an 11-7 Big Ten record, 5-13 vs. ranked teams, 1-3 vs. Notre Dame, plus the postponement of the Notre Dame series that has been pinned on Riley, which upset some of his fanbase. 

There is optimism for the men of Troy this year, however. USC is ranked No. 14 in the preseason AP poll. There is a lot of experience back, including at quarterback, where Jayden Maiava showed he can be an upper-level Big Ten QB last season. And USC signed the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class according to 247Sports.

Like many on this list, the AD that hired Riley is no longer in place. The rumored buyout of $80-$90 million is almost too much to comprehend, but the checks from the Big Ten are rather hefty and may be enough if things go sideways this season on a schedule that features Oregon, Washington, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana.

Keep an eye on: Shane Beamer, South Carolina; Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State; Bill O’Brien, Boston College