Coca-Cola’s outlook underwhelms with CEO change looming

Coca-Cola is contending with new state programs preventing some people on food aid from buying soft drinks with their benefits and sharp messages from the Trump administration that soda is unhealthy. Photo by Pexels/Postmedia files

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Coca-Cola Co. offered a more conservative 2026 full-year sales outlook than expected, as the soda company works to boost its sales overseas.

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Atlanta-based Coca-Cola sees organic sales growth of four per cent to five per cent. Analyst expected 5.01 per cent on average.

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The outlook points to the challenges faced by incoming chief executive Henrique Braun as the company works to win over shoppers with its widening portfolio of beverages, including sugar-free soda, sports drinks and water, as consumers shift away from traditional full-calorie soft drinks and toward healthier options.

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Outgoing chief executive James Quincey said the company had offered an outlook that “we believe to be realistic and prudent” and reflected efforts to boost the volume of sales in India, China and some European countries. Coca-Cola also faces a headwind in Mexico, which is hiking an existing tax on sugary drinks. The company said it expected the World Cup to boost its sales in Mexico.

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The guidance “reflects the sum of many parts around the world,” chief financial officer John Murphy said on the call. “We have momentum in some markets and we’ve had challenges in other markets.”

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Stock Declines

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Shares of Coca-Cola fell as much as 2.3 per cent on Tuesday. The stock had gained almost 12 per cent this year through Monday’s close, compared with a nearly two per cent increase in the S&P 500 Index.

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The company saw continued strength in Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, which it said grew 14 per cent over 2025. Diet Coke gained two per cent in the fourth quarter and was even for the year. Zero-sugar sodas have been a bright spot for soda companies, as demand for full-sugar sodas has declined.

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Quincey will step down at the end of March to be replaced by Braun, who has been the company’s chief operating officer. Braun, a veteran of nearly three decades at Coca-Cola, is seen as well-versed in the company’s complex bottling and distribution system.

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“Our system needs to focus on being a little bit better and sharper everywhere,” Braun said on a call with analysts Tuesday. “There will be a balance between continuing what’s working and evolving where we can to become more effective and efficient.”

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Still, Coca-Cola is contending with new state programs preventing some people on food aid from buying soft drinks with their benefits and sharp messages from the Trump administration that soda is unhealthy.

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‘Manageable’ Impact

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Quincey said the impact from the state soda restrictions was “manageable” and small when put in the context of Coca-Cola’s global business. The company said it expected consumers receiving food aid would use those benefits to buy permitted groceries and their own cash to buy other items, including soda.

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“Clearly, we think that consumers should be allowed to choose, but regulation is regulation,” he said.

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For the fourth quarter, Coca-Cola reported adjusted earnings per share of 58 cents, slightly above analysts’ average estimate.

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The volume of sales in North America gained one per cent in the fourth quarter, driven by growth in water, sports drinks, coffee, tea and trademark Coca-Cola sodas.

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The company said it had to take an impairment charge of US$960 million related to the BodyArmor sports drink, which it bought for US$5.6 billion in 2021, in an effort to challenge Gatorade.

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