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That hasn’t stopped him from garnering a loyal following in China for his Warren Buffett-like online musings on investment philosophy, keenly parsed by anyone eager to emulate a strategy closer to that of a traditional Western hedge fund than the more speculative approach of homegrown traders.
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A good investor must “let go of his own ego and be less obsessed, and then choose the right targets and be stubborn,” Bian wrote in one of his periodic posts in January. “When choosing targets, focus on trends. When implementing projects, focus on timing. When maintaining projects, focus on costs.”
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His lieutenants occasionally write up their own “reflections” on the company site.
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Bian declined to comment for this story. Zhongcai did not respond to emailed queries. Bloomberg used bourse data and conversations with multiple business associates, rivals and other traders to build a picture of his operations and trading.
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Seeing Red
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Bian isn’t alone in seeing an upward trajectory for copper, an industrial metal vital for the electrification of the world. The long-term dynamics of the energy transition and limited mine supply have long been highlighted by bulls. Commodity traders in the last few months have been chasing gains from Trump’s copper tariff threat, which has drawn cargoes to US warehouses and left the rest of the world short. Mercuria Energy Group Ltd.’s metals boss Kostas Bintas, one of the more outspoken boosters, suggested in March that copper could reach $12,000 or $13,000 a ton, well above previous records and current levels closer to $9,500.
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Still, a more volatile market has made the metal’s next move hard to predict, while prices at historically high levels are also testing the resilience of large physical consumers in China.
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Bian has been in and out of copper before. He held short positions through much of 2024, even as the rest of the world took a rosier view of the Chinese economy. Just before the US election in November, he began a switched to an emphatic long position, in anticipation of a Trump victory that could prompt investment in local manufacturing, and of Chinese economic stimulus efforts.
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He accelerated his purchases from early January, for his own investment and with managed funds, with Zhongcai holdings reaching a peak near 40,000 lots, or 200,000 tons of the metal, in early April, before Trump began his escalation of tariffs, exchange data shows. He later moved some of the brokerage’s positions to CME Group’s Comex, to capture US turbulence, two of the people familiar with his investments said. As at the end of April, Zhongcai’s copper bet generated a total profit of around $200 million, according to the Bloomberg calculation.
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According to the people, he currently holds no short positions in copper.
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Bian has concentrated his bets in Shanghai, a move that ultimately proved lucky. When copper prices briefly tumbled amid tariff uncertainties last month, Chinese markets were closed for a national holiday, sparing Bian and other Shanghai-based traders from the selloff and rebound.
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Some of his investors have backed out since then, two of the people said, rattled by the trade war and fears of a global recession.
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But Bian has increased his own long positions in copper in the past month in Shanghai and beyond, telling backers that he sees economic resilience in China and a continued rise for the metal. Rival traders say his is also a bet on China’s shift to a higher-tech — and so copper-hungry — economy, and on the ample liquidity to support it.
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The position “is not big enough to distort the market, but it does provide a rare insight into Bian’s strategy,” said Jia Zheng, head of trading at Shanghai Soochow Jiuying Investment Management Co. “People in the market have been tracking his gold and copper trades closely.”
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