Chinese Oil Imports May Never Fully Recover From Iran War

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The International Energy Agency expects China’s average oil demand this year to go down by 360,000 barrels a day, the “first significant annual drop” since the oil crises of the 1970s and early 1980s, it said in its monthly report in June. It appears that utilization of EVs has risen substantially since the increase in oil prices, and there are indications that EV charging in cities is also accelerating, the agency said.

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“There will be a number of people that find electric vehicles more attractive than previously, and you will have a slight uptick in terms of switching,” from gasoline and diesel fuel, said Rogan Quinn, a senior analyst at Rhodium Group. “This is primarily a trend that coincided with the conflict and then was exacerbated by the conflict.” 

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On the Wire

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China warned that supply chains may become disconnected as key trading partners mull new measures to address growing imbalances and reduce rare earths dependencies.

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China has imposed export controls on two US rare earth producers that are part of Washington’s effort to establish alternative supply chains for minerals critical to advanced manufacturing and defense. 

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The Iran war caused one of the biggest supply shocks to ever hit the aluminum market, but the runaway price surge that many were bracing for has been blunted by the ingenuity of producers from the Middle East to China. 

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China’s exports of some critical minerals to Japan remained at low levels in May, extending a downturn amid a political dispute between the two countries.

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This Week’s Diary

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(All times Beijing)

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Monday, June 22

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  • China sets monthly Loan Prime Rates, 09:00
  • China International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing, day 1

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Tuesday, June 23

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  • Summer Davos forum in Dalian, day 1
  • China International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing, day 2

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Wednesday, June 24

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  • CCTD’s weekly online briefing on coal markets, 15:00
  • China Nonferrous Metals Mining Conference in Xining, day 1
  • Summer Davos forum in Dalian, day 2
  • China International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing, day 3

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Thursday, June 25

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  • China Nonferrous Metals Mining Conference in Xining, day 2
  • Summer Davos forum in Dalian, day 3
  • China International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing, day 4

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Friday, June 26

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  • China Nonferrous Metals Mining Conference in Xining, day 3
  • China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
  • SHFE’s weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30

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Saturday, June 27

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  • China’s industrial profits for May, 09:30

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(Updates with published item and diary sections)

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