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(Bloomberg) — China’s solar industry is expecting a massive drop-off in installations in 2026 due to a policy shift instituted last year that has threatened to slash revenue from renewable generation.
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The China Photovoltaic Industry Association expects 180 gigawatts to 240 gigawatts of additions in 2026, Chairman Wang Bohua said at the group’s annual conference in Beijing on Thursday. The country added a record 315 gigawatts last year, and solar panels are expected to overtake coal as the leading source of power capacity in the country this year.
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The surge in solar farms that only generate when the sun is shining has put pressure on grids to increase investments in power lines, energy storage and digital tools to help make sure the electricity is used.
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The government also rolled out new rules last year that force wind and solar to sell their power at market rates instead of government-regulated tariffs, a move that’s expected to sap revenue from new projects. The rules have already had a huge impact, with installations falling off sharply in the months after they went into effect June 1.
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“Policy shifts such as the market-based pricing scheme for renewables have put market participants in a wait-and-see mode, which will likely result in a drop in installations,” Wang said.
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A sharp drop in the world’s biggest market for solar panels will be an added challenge to equipment manufacturers, who have posted steep losses in the past two years after a rapid build-out of factories created a huge amount of surplus capacity and sent prices to tumble.
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Still, China’s solar roll-out isn’t expected to slow for long. After a dip this year, installations are expected to rebound through the rest of the decade, averaging 238 gigawatts to 287 gigawatts a year from 2026 through 2030, Wang said.
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