China’s Year-Long Rare Earths Truce Offers Near-Term Relief

58u(u36l9qahiwy)h7q}hsod_media_dl_1.png International Energy Agency

Article content

(Bloomberg) — China paused plans for a dramatic expansion of its rare-earths export controls, offering relief to global buyers after a tumultuous year and giving major economies more time to grapple with Beijing’s grip on the industry.

Article content

Export controls announced on Oct. 9, which had added to existing curbs, will be suspended for one year, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement, after Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a trade truce at a meeting in Seoul.

Article content

Article content

Article content

Rare earths have been in focus for months since Beijing moved to use its dominance over the niche but vital materials to pressure the US administration. The stand-off has spurred a major push by geopolitical rivals to reduce reliance on China, which currently accounts for the bulk of both mining and processing activity.

Article content

Article content

“The narrative around Chinese control of resources won’t change just because the export controls are delayed by a year,” said David S. Abraham, a professor at Idaho’s Boise State University and an expert in rare earths. “What this does is buy more time” to develop a response, he said.

Article content

The Group of Seven nations are set to announce plans on Friday for an alliance on critical minerals aimed at challenging China’s dominance. The US has already amped up state intervention in the sector and has sought collaboration with like-minded nations. Trump has so far signed minerals deals with Australia, Japan, Malaysia and Thailand in a bid to boost supplies over the longer term.

Article content

Rare earths stocks worldwide racked up spectacular gains as China amped up its threats and Western governments pledged more support. Shares have cooled in recent weeks as the chances of a US-China rapprochement increased, and the decline deepened today. 

Article content

Article content

Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. closed down 3.2% in Sydney at its lowest since mid-September, while Arafura Rare Earths Ltd. — an early beneficiary of the US-Australia agreement — fell 6.7% after a 20% slump on Wednesday.

Article content

“Immediate reaction is negative as expected, but the tailwind is structural,” said Justin Lin, an investment analyst at Global X Management. “China has already demonstrated twice that it can and will use rare earths as an economic weapon. Long-term investment into rare earth supply chains ex-China will be viewed as a necessity by most nations even with a successful deal.”

Article content

The paused measures include a wide range of curbs unveiled earlier this month, as Trump and Xi sought to pile pressure on each other in the run-up to trade negotiations. Some steps were incremental, such as adding five elements to the existing seven controlled rare earths, while others strengthened existing restrictions on exports of Chinese production technology. 

Article content

They also included Beijing’s most ambitious plans to date, such as a bid to apply controls to products traded outside China that contain even tiny amounts of Chinese material, or to those made overseas with Chinese equipment. Consultancy Adamas Intelligence has described the last measure as a “mega flex.” 

Article content

The original restrictions announced by Beijing in April, targeting seven “heavy” rare earths, weren’t addressed in the statement on Thursday. 

Article content

The measures being considered by the Group of Seven this week at a meeting of energy ministers in Toronto include purchase agreements, stockpiling arrangements and guaranteed minimum prices, offering support for an alternative supply chain outside China.

Article content

—With assistance from Andrew Janes.

Article content

(Updates earlier story with details and comments from sixth paragraph.)

Article content