China’s Weaker Winds Allow Fossil Fuel Power to Make a Comeback

2)(]j1thw7uj5bd011n}[hz5_media_dl_1.png National Bureau of Statistics

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(Bloomberg) — Fossil fuels staged a comeback in China’s power sector last quarter, as weather variations and grid constraints slowed the growth of clean energy.

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Thermal power output rose 3.7% over the first three months of 2026 after a 1% decline last year, the first annual drop in a decade. Electricity generation is by far the country’s largest source of greenhouse gases, and the rebound undermines the progress made in reining in emissions ahead of the government’s own targets.

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The math behind China’s fossil fuel use is fairly simple. If generation from clean sources grows enough to meet increases in demand, then the country can burn less gas and coal. 

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That didn’t happen in the first quarter, in part because of the weather. In March, the average wind speed across the country dropped 13%, according to a report from Huafeng Innovation Research Institute. So even though China added a record number of new turbines last year, wind generation over the period fell 2.9%, according to industrial output data. Nuclear also fell 3.8%.

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“Limited wind resources in many key regions, and the shutdown of many nuclear plants for maintenance, most likely contributed to the increase in thermal power,” said Cosimo Ries, an energy analyst with Trivium China.

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Power demand grew 5.2% during the quarter, driven by heavy industry and the rapid expansion of electric vehicle charging stations and data centers, according to Matt Ewen, an analyst with clean energy think tank Ember.

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Curtailments Worsen 

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The conditions for clean energy generation also worsened because of rising curtailments. The yearslong boom in installations has left parts of the grid unable to deal with a surplus of power when the sun shines and the wind blows. China wasted 9.4% of its solar power and 8.6% of its wind power in January and February, up from 6.1% and 6.2% in the same period in 2025. 

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Much of the increase in thermal generation during the first quarter would have been unnecessary if that curtailed electricity had been available. 

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China’s grid operators are racing to develop the capacity to absorb more renewables, rapidly building out the energy storage systems and power lines that will allow them to balance supply with demand at any time and in any location.

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But China’s market rules have been designed for a grid dominated by coal-fired power. Regulatory challenges are slowing down the optimal use of the new infrastructure, said Muyi Yang, an analyst with Ember.

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“The exponential wind and solar growth of the past few years has started to normalize somewhat this year,” Yang said. “Growth is now increasingly shaped by integration constraints.”

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On the Wire

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China’s dominance of rare earths supply chains gives President Xi Jinping economic leverage worth $1.2 trillion in his planned summit meeting with US President Donald Trump in Beijing next month. 

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China’s top leaders are sounding more optimistic at the latest Politburo meeting. That doesn’t bode well for an economy that is still trying to break free from years of deflation.