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(Bloomberg) — China’s solar generating capacity is expected to surpass coal for the first time this year, according to the country’s top electricity industry group, marking a milestone in the country’s long-standing effort to build a cleaner power system.
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The nation, which runs on some of the world’s cheapest electricity at more than twice the scale of the US, is on track to source about half of its installed generating capacity from solar and wind by the end of the year, the China Electricity Council said in a report on Monday. Coal’s share is expected to slide to about one third of the total even amid a building boom.
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The CEC’s estimates put total coal capacity at about 1,333 gigawatts by the end of 2026, while solar ended 2025 at 1,200 gigawatts and has averaged 270 gigawatts of growth a year over the past three years, according to National Energy Administration data.
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New generating capacity across energy sources is forecast to exceed 400 gigawatts in 2026, broadly keeping pace with rising electricity demand, the CEC said. The buildout has helped the country avoid widespread blackouts like those seen in 2021 and 2022, a problem that until recently has continued to affect parts of the US and Europe.
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Most of China’s new capacity is expected to come from renewables, led by wind and solar, which together would account for about 300 gigawatts of the increase. While still massive on a global scale, it would represent a huge slowdown from last year, when solar alone accounted for 315 gigawatts of the new capacity. Beijing last year adopted new policies pushing renewables toward market pricing, a move that’s expected to slash revenue from new developments.
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The government has also accelerated power market reforms, intensifying competition among energy sources and pushing electricity prices lower. It lifted investment in the power grid to a record high last year as well to ease transmission bottlenecks.
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