China’s September Emissions Drop Keeps Annual Decline in Play

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(Bloomberg) — A drop in Chinese carbon emissions in September suggests this year could still see an annual decline, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, in what would be a global climate turning point.

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September saw a 3% year-on-year drop, keeping the third quarter flat compared with the same period in 2024, despite a rise in power consumption during the summer months due to increased air conditioning use, CREA lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta said in a report for Carbon Brief. 

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China’s emissions have been flat or falling for the past 18 months, he said. Those from the power sector have been limited by a flood of new electricity from wind and solar. Falling steel and cement output, meanwhile, has helped offset rising pollution from the chemicals sector.

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The combination could now mean a slight increase or even a decrease in emissions is possible for the full year, Myllyvirta said. China accounts for almost 30% of global emissions, so a decline would have huge ramifications for efforts to limit global warming.

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“A drop in full-year emissions became much more likely after September,” Myllyvirta said in the report. “If this pattern repeats, then China’s CO2 emissions will record a fall for the full year of 2025.”

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Myllyvirta, however, added it was “already clear” that the country would miss its target of reducing the carbon intensity of its economy — emissions per unit of gross domestic product — by 18% from 2020 to 2025. That means China will need to set an even more ambitious target for its next five-year plan, due to be released in March, if it’s to hit a goal of reducing the headline figure by 65% by 2030, relative to 2005.

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On the Wire

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Shipowner Sun Xiushun has unlocked the world’s largest untapped iron ore deposit with a more than 600-km railway across Guinea, plus bridges, tunnels and a purpose-built port — likely making himself a billionaire in the process.

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China’s passenger car sales dropped in October for the first time in more than a year as the gradual phasing out of local government trade-in programs add to ongoing headwinds that are hurting demand.

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Vale SA is turning to new markets to diversify iron ore sales as the industry’s top customer China steps up efforts to influence prices of the steelmaking staple.

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Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s plan to impose steep tariffs on Chinese imports has been delayed until at least December as mounting opposition from the private sector and even members of the ruling party stalls congressional debate.

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This Week’s Diary

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(All times Beijing)

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Tuesday, Nov. 11:

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Wednesday, Nov. 12:

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Thursday, Nov. 13:

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Friday, Nov. 14:

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