Carney’s Plan for Managing Trump: Keep Calm and Find New Friends

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Thousands of Canadian factory workers have been watching with worry and anger as Trump ratcheted up tariffs and said he’d like to “permanently shut” Canada’s auto industry — among other threats. The US has targeted key Canadian exports including steel and aluminum and is coming for more, including lumber. 

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In places like Windsor, the stakes of the trade war are deeply personal. Near the back of Saturday night’s rally, retiree Sue Gaul held a red “Carney for Canada” sign and spoke about the unease sweeping through her community, home to plants owned by Stellantis NV and Ford Motor Co.

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Gaul said she doesn’t expect Carney to immediately solve everything, but she feels more comfortable with him in charge. “Mark is a very calming person,” she said. “I just trust him, period.” 

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Companies like Algoma Steel Group Inc. have a lot riding on a trade detente between Canada and the US. Three days before the election, Carney made a campaign stop at Algoma’s plant in the border city of Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, pledging to “stand with every single Canadian targeted by President Trump’s attacks on our country.” Laura Devoni, an executive with the company, said it has already laid off 30 workers and is losing millions of dollars a month under the US tariffs. 

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Carney, 60, will have to manage the unpredictable Trump while juggling an unstable political situation at home. Voters kept him on as prime minister, but it appears they’ve denied the Liberals the 172 seats needed for a House of Commons majority. The Liberals were leading or elected in 169 seats as of Tuesday afternoon Ottawa time, compared with 144 for the Conservatives and 30 for other parties. 

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That means the prime minister will need to work with lawmakers from opposition parties in order to pass budgets, legislation — to accomplish anything major. 

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“If I were him, I would draft some Conservatives onto a ‘Team Canada’ to negotiate with the US and to coordinate on restructuring our economy and trade relationships,” said Jim Leech, former chief executive officer of the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan.

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Some worry Carney’s own competing priorities could hamper his response to Trump. He has, for example, called for building pipelines and trade corridors for Canadian oil to reach new markets other than the US. But he’s also committed to the fight against climate change, which could require leaving some of the country’s vast oil reserves untapped.

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“Carney saying that he wants to leave that stuff in the ground means we’re going to starve to death,” said Philip Reichmann, founding partner of ReichmannHauer Capital Partners in Toronto.

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Carney spoke with Trump by phone on March 28, and both leaders indicated discussions might begin after the election. Carney has signaled a willingness to meet Trump without major conditions, asking only for what he called “an ambitious and broad-ranging discussion that’s going to be had between two sovereign nations.” 

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Asked at a news conference Saturday if he’s worried Trump would escalate beyond tariffs — even resorting to military force to back up his rhetoric about absorbing Canada — Carney shrugged off the idea. “The short answer is no,” he said.

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But then he outlined the scenario he is worried about: the use of tariffs to crush Canada’s economy — and the nation’s will. “The US is trying to put economic pressure on us to gain major concessions,” Carney said, adding that Trump’s threats of annexation should not be taken as a joke.

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“Right from the start, I took it seriously,” he said. “That drives the strength of our response to their tariffs.”

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—With assistance from Sarah McGregor.

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