Carney’s Edge Slips as Canada’s Election Comes to a Hectic End

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(Bloomberg) — The Conservative Party chipped away at the lead held by Mark Carney’s Liberals in the final days of Canada’s election campaign, though surveys still point to a probable Liberal victory in Monday’s vote.  

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The Liberals’ estimated popular vote share was 41% in Abacus Data’s final likely-voter election model, released over the weekend, just two points ahead of the Conservatives. The polling company had reported a 5-point Liberal advantage on April 21. 

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The dominant ballot question for much of the 37-day campaign was which candidate will best stand up for Canada against aggressive trade actions from US President Donald Trump — and voters prefer Carney on that issue, according to multiple surveys. 

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But the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, 45, have emphasized the need for a change in direction and policy for Canada after nearly 10 years of Liberal rule. When it comes to cost of living, housing and deficit control, voters tend to favor Poilievre, who has focused on pocketbook issues and highlighting the Liberals’ failures since he became leader in 2022. Abacus surveys suggest the “change vote” is higher now that it was earlier in April. 

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Dealing with Trump remained the No. 1 concern for over-60 voters, who typically vote more reliably than younger citizens. Conservatives, sensing their disadvantage, have been rolling out new television ads featuring older people saying they want to vote for change. 

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The leaders of the two major parties criss-crossed the world’s second-largest country multiple times since the election was called in late March, holding rallies, press conferences and shaking thousands of hands in battleground districts from the Ontario suburbs to the Vancouver region.

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Carney, 60, running in his first ever election campaign, made several stops in the vote-rich Toronto region and in southern Ontario late last week, including a rally on Saturday that drew thousands of people to a hangar near Toronto’s Pearson International Airport. On Sunday, he made a dash to three western provinces — Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia — seeking to shore up urban seats where the Liberals have chance to win.

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However, a car ramming incident in Vancouver on Saturday night, which killed 11 people and injured dozens at a street festival, cast a shadow over the final day of canvassing. The tragedy prompted Carney to scale back his travel schedule to address the country and meet community leaders.