Who will stand tall when Canelo Alvarez takes on Christian Mbilli on Halloween for the WBC super middleweight title?
Canelo (63-3-2) is a multi-time undisputed super middleweight champion. He lost a six-fight win streak and his status as champion after losing to Terence Crawford a year ago.
The Mexican fighter is back in action, looking to reclaim gold. With coach Eddy Reynoso, Canelo has teamed with another all-time great, Oleksandr Usyk, as he aims to be 100% ready for whatever Mbilli has in store for him.
"In strength and conditioning, I am learning new things. I appreciate them because they put all of their energy into me and are doing everything based on what [my head coach] Eddy Reynoso needs for boxing. That's very good," Canelo said via The Ring.
MORE: Canelo reflects on lessons learned from Crawford loss
Mbilli (29-0-1) has 24 knockout wins. The former interim champion believes he’s being underestimated and wants to spoil Canelo’s return.
"I’m a very dangerous fighter for him, but I have to be careful, he’s Canelo. I’m going to put more pressure, more combinations, I’m going to work my defense too," Mbilli said on the Mr. Verzace podcast via DAZN. "He will regret being in the ring."
Here's a breakdown of Canelo Alvarez vs. Christian Mbilli and The Sporting News' prediction for the fight.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Christian Mbilli predictions
Among active fighters, Canelo is eighth in +/- at 12.3. He ranks seventh with a power connect percentage mark of 44.9% and tenth in the current pound-for-pound rankings in average total punches landed per round (12.3).
Canelo's power is real. He has the third-highest landing percentage (71.5). The Mexican fighter's opponents land the sixth-highest punches landed per round (9.3) and the sixth-fewest (9.3).
Per ESPN, Mbilli lands about 30.4 body shots per round. He lands 3.8 jabs per round.
Recent performances could help figure out where these fighters really have the edge.
MORE: Canelo Alvarez record after losses
Against former contender Sergiy Derevyanchenko, Mbilli landed 215 of 696 shots (30.9%) and didn’t take his foot off the gas. Derevyanchenko was also a one-armed fighter thanks to a biceps injury. In a draw against Lester Martinez, Mbili landed 273 of 787 shots, while Martinez landed 412 of 980.
In a contest where William Scull didn’t press forward, Canelo and Scull threw a combined 445 punches, the fewest in a 12-round fight. Before that, fights against Edgar Berlanga and Jaime Munguia were considered target practice.
Against Terence Crawford, Canelo connected with 99 shots (29.3 connect rate) compared to 115 (21.5 connect rate) from the former. Canelo landed 16 jabs, while Crawford landed 45.
Crawford was a more calculating fighter than Mbilli is. Mbilli comes forward and throws for volume. Can Canelo deflect potential punishing blows? More importantly, can he glide and counter with punishing shots of his own?
After a year away from the ring, Canelo will be tested. However, he's still Canelo. He should dictate the pace and earn the win, further cementing his status as the best in boxing.
