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“I have seen one where there’s a proponent on natural gas that would build an all-weather road beside the pipeline,” Hodgson said. He emphasized the effect this could have on the Indigenous communities in northern Manitoba, many of which are accessible only by plane.
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“If you have an all-weather road up from southern Manitoba to Churchill, you fundamentally change the economics of all the critical minerals throughout,” he said. “You also fundamentally change the cost of living of every community right along the line.”
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He pointed to the support of Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew, who is himself Indigenous, as especially crucial for getting projects built to Churchill.
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“I have seen a level of coordination between the provincial government in Manitoba, the First Nations and Metis peoples in Manitoba and certain proponents that looks very promising. Probably more so than any other,” he said.
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Some are highly doubtful the economics will ever make sense for Churchill.
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“Are we forgetting that we’ve been trying this for a hundred years?” said Heather Exner-Pirot, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute who specializes in northern and Indigenous resource development.
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She said proposals for Churchill are almost always generated from governments or First Nations groups, and she’s skeptical there are private sector shippers serious about using the port. Insurers are unlikely to sign off on an extended shipping season any time soon, and year-round ice-breaking would probably run into trouble with Inuit land titles and environmental considerations, she said.
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“I just can’t believe that it’s easier to do it through the Arctic in the winter than to go over land,” Exner-Pirot said, arguing the return on investment would be much higher going to the west coast or using existing east coast ports.
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Still, there are new considerations at play as Carney’s government searches for fresh trade routes.
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Churchill has seen a modest revival in the past decade. In 2018, the port and the connecting rail line were purchased by Arctic Gateway Group, which is owned by a partnership of 41 Indigenous groups and communities in the region. The rail line now has four weekly trips — two freight trains and two passenger trains — and the port has expanded its storage facilities for critical minerals.
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With Trump’s tariff agenda, “what we offer becomes so much more important to help us with our national agenda, which is to diversify our trade away from the US and help us become a global energy superpower,” said Chris Avery, chief executive officer of the Arctic Gateway Group.
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Avery said the port aims to ship 20,000 tons of zinc concentrate this year, and he expects some grain shipments before the ice returns. Ships taking supplies to the far north also use the facility.
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Avery said he hasn’t yet met with Hodgson, but agrees that year-round shipping from the port is feasible with icebreakers. The current shipping season is about four months, but he’s working with University of Manitoba researchers to try to convince insurers that it’s closer to six months now.
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Asked whether oil exports could ever be an option through the port, Avery said he’ll always listen to proposals from the private sector, but added that “nothing has come forward specifically around that.”
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There are other proposals for shipping through Hudson Bay, including one group pitching a liquefied natural gas export facility further south on the coast. Avery said he could only speak to the opportunity represented by the existing assets in Churchill.
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“The rail line is in better condition than it has been for the past 30 years,” he said, noting the company is also modernizing the basic port facilities, such as the wharf decks.
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“This whole set of infrastructure is ready to serve the country,” he said. “We just really fully need to leverage it.”
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—With assistance from Mathieu Dion.
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