Buccaneers vs. Bills prediction: NFL Week 11 picks, player props, odds

It’s June of 2018 and as the NFL draft approaches, you’re debating with some friends about who will go when amongst a talented quarterback class.

There’s Baker Mayfield, the Heisman winner from Oklahoma — a bold, edgy competitor with elite arm talent, but concerns about mechanics and decision making under duress. 

There’s also Josh Allen from Wyoming, a physically gifted player with mobility and stature, but concerns with accuracy and ball security. 

It’s Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season and those two face each other while jockeying for NFL MVP as they both lead their respective divisions at 6-3. 

Tampa has lost two of its last four to the formidable likes of the Lions and Patriots. This is an efficient football team, just not humming on offense like it once did. The Bucs are not sustaining scores, especially with a __ of ongoing injuries to central weapons such as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving. 

The run and pass game has taken a blow for it, primarily with Rachaad White averaging only 3.7 ypc. 

There’s of course Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Emeka Egbuka a prime beneficiary of these absences, though he will face a Bills secondary that has permitted the fifth-fewest catches to wide receivers. 

Instead, Josh Grizzard is likely to opt into exploiting a Bills run defense that is coughing up 147 ypg to shorten the game and protect Mayfield. 

TAMPA, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 09: Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers warms up prior to the game against the New England Patriots at Raymond James Stadium on November 09, 2025 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images) Getty Images

The Bills are seeking a rebound from one of their worst losses in recent memory, falling to the futile Dolphins last week 30-13.

Although Allen’s abilities are always good to extend a drive or two, the passing attack has been moody over the past month. It gains a robust 7.2 net yards per passing drive despite ranking No. 29 overall in pass attempts.

That’s because the Bills lean laboriously on the run and it’s worked. James Cook is No. 2 in raw scrimmage yards and the Bills are undefeated when he eclipses 100 yards. 

Allen is fourth in rushing yards amongst quarterbacks.

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I expect to see more of that with a signature Buffalo football weather forecast on tap: sustained winds between 15 and 20 mph and gusts over 30 mph. That’s in addition to a mix of rain and snow and low 40 degree temperatures. 

Buffalo has been good for hitting the Under in four of its last five games while the Bucs have in two of their last three. 

No matter how capable these two quarterbacks are, some game scripts are meant to stay quieter, especially this time of year on the Canadian border.

THE PLAY: Under 47 (-110, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.