Buccaneers playoff picture: Updated chances for Tampa Bay to make 2025 NFL postseason after Week 16 loss to Panthers

Is a sixth-straight playoff appearance in the cards for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

It's been an up-and-down season for the Bucs, who got off to a hot start behind Baker Mayfield, but they have cooled off as the postseason draws closer. As of Week 16, Tampa Bay's playoff chances remain up in the air — but an NFC South win increasingly looks like the team's only shot.

Still, the Carolina Panthers are also in the mix. Sunday's matchup between the Buccaneers and Panthers, a 23-20 Carolina win, will loom large, but the teams still have a Week 18 matchup remaining as well.

Here's a look at Tampa Bay's updated playoff chances this season.

MORE: Updated AFC and NFC playoff pictures

Buccaneers playoff picture

The Buccaneers' only real shot at making the postseason is by winning their division. At 7-8, they lag far behind the seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers in the NFC wild-card standings, needing a whole lot of help over the next two weeks to sneak into the bottom of the playoff picture.

If Tampa Bay is going to make a playoff push, it will be through the NFC South crown — but Sunday's loss complicates that a bit more, leaving less room for error. The Athletic's playoff predictor now gives the Buccaneers a 56% chance to make the playoffs, which is almost entirely a possibility through their division.

MORE: Updated chances for the Chargers to make the playoffs

NFC South standings

Both the Panthers and Buccaneers came into their Week 16 game at 7-7, and it's Carolina that leaves with a winning record and the division lead. However, while the Panthers can now be viewed as the slight favorite to win the division and take the NFC South playoff spot, the fact that Tampa Bay and Carolina are scheduled to meet again in two weeks is the biggest factor.

The Week 17 schedule for both squads appears to potentially set up a win-and-in scenario for Week 18. Carolina gets the NFC-leading Seattle Seahawks next week, while the Buccaneers get a 6-9 Dolphins squad. If expectations hold true, and the Panthers lose while the Buccaneers win, then the NFC South would come down to the final game between Carolina and Tampa Bay.

Still, the Panthers do now have a chance to shut the door on the division in Week 17 if they upset the Seahawks — and that would also shut the door on Tampa Bay's playoff chances.

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NFC playoff picture

Technically, the Buccaneers are alive in the NFC Wild Card race, but they can virtually be ruled out. Tampa Bay would have to win out and get a ton of help to sneak in as the No. 7 seed — The Athletic's playoff predictor gives them under a 1% chance to secure a wild-card spot.

The Buccaneers path to the playoffs is almost surely for the Panthers to lose in Week 17 and Tampa Bay to win, then the Buccaneers beat the Panthers in Week 18.

MORE: How can the Packers make the playoffs?

Buccaneers remaining schedule

Just two games remain for Tampa Bay: a road matchup against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon in Week 17, then a potentially massive second game against the Panthers.

Here's the Buccaneers remaining schedule:

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