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The San Diego Padres desperately needed to add a starting pitcher this offseason after losing both Dylan Cease and Michael King to free agency. They were able to keep King in San Diego by re-signing the righty to a three-year, $75 million contract that includes an opt-out after the first two seasons. He will return to the top of the rotation, forming a formidable duo with Nick Pivetta, who posted a 2.87 ERA, a 190:50 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a 3.49 FIP over 181.2 innings last season. After these two pitchers, the rotation looks worrisome.
The depth is already slim after losing Yu Darvish for the 2026 season due to needing surgery to repair a torn UCL and flexor tendon, including an internal brace. The number three starter, Joe Musgrove, has been solid over the last five years he's pitched, posting an ERA under 4.00 in each season. However, he missed the entire 2025 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, which he underwent in October 2024. In both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, he threw fewer than 100 innings after throwing 181 innings in both 2021 and 2022. How he returns will be a massive question mark.
Randy Vásquez will fill the fourth spot in the rotation. Last season, he posted a 3.84 ERA over 133.2 innings, but struggled with control, posting a 78:52 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 4.85 FIP. He pitches to contact, ranking in the second percentile last season in strikeout percentage (13.7 percent), according to Baseball Savant. This statistic was 19.9 percent in his rookie season (2023) but has decreased each season since. His 2025 xERA was 5.38, meaning he lucked out from receiving superb defense behind him.
The fifth starter looks to be JP Sears, who was acquired with Mason Miller from the Athletics at this past season's trade deadline. The 29-year-old has been underwhelming after a solid rookie season in 2022, where he posted a 3.86 ERA over 70 innings. He hasn't finished with an ERA lower than 4.30 each of the last three seasons. Sears doesn't offer much strikeout ability, ranking in the 30th percentile in strikeout percentage (20.1 percent), but he has superb control, ranking in the 82nd percentile in walk percentage (6.2 percent).
The rest of the depth chart doesn't look any better. Kyle Hart was primarily used out of the bullpen last season, returning to MLB after a season with the Korean Baseball Organization. Out of his 40 appearances between Triple-A and the majors, only sixteen were starts. He was projected to be the fifth starter before King re-signed. However, he posted a 5.86 ERA, a 37:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a 5.18 FIP. He doesn't offer much confidence to fans if he plays a significant role with the Padres next season.
Matt Waldron (7.71 ERA) and Omar Cruz (4.91 ERA) threw less than five innings with the Padres last season, but struggled with control, posting 3:6 and 5:3 strikeout-to-walk ratios, respectively. The team recently signed Triston McKenzie, who was a standout in 2022, posting a 2.92 ERA, but elbow and back injuries have derailed his career since. Last season, he threw 5.2 innings, posting an 11.12 ERA and a 4:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
The Padres will hope a new scenery will help McKenzie return to his dominant 2022 form. However, they need to add another starter who has had some success. If either of the current five starters struggles or gets hurt, there isn't anyone that the team can count on to bring up.
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