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The Liberty have spent 44 games trying to figure themselves out — tinkering with lineups, installing a new offense and experimenting with defensive coverages under first-year head coach Chris DeMarco.
It was all meant to build toward the playoffs.
That time has come.
The Liberty enter the postseason after an underwhelming 26-18 season plagued by injuries. They’re the eighth seed, despite having a record only one loss worse than last year when the Libs finished fifth.
The thing about the postseason, though, is how a team got here doesn’t matter.
The Liberty have a chance to write the ending they think they deserve. They’ll face a familiar foe in the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx.
Let’s take a look at how the two teams match up:
Olivia Miles vs. Liberty’s defense
It’s hard to know the severity of Miles’ calf injury that kept her out of the final two games of the season. Her availability and comfort level could swing the series.
The goal isn’t to stop Miles but to slow her.
The Liberty did a good job of that in their last meeting, a 93-81 Libs win on Sept. 18.
Miles missed 10 of her first 13 shots across three quarters and was visibly frustrated at times with the Liberty’s physicality and relentlessness. Leonie Fiebich, Pauline Astier and Rebekah Gardner took turns hounding Miles and making her work on every possession.
Jonquel Jones also blocked Miles near the rim twice.
Miles still managed to finish with a team-high 20 points, eight rebounds and five assists.
Edge: Lynx
Breanna Stewart vs. Lynx’s defense
Similar to Miles, Stewart’s health is a notable storyline heading into the postseason.
Stewart missed the regular-season finale with soreness in her left knee after tweaking it in a previous game. DeMarco said it was a “precautionary” measure to keep Stewart out but was noncommittal about her availability in the postseason.
History tells us she’ll play. She almost willed the Libs to a win in the first round last year while playing on one knee.
Stewart is without a doubt the best player in this series, and the Lynx seem to be her favorite team to play against.
The former MVP is averaging 25.7 points and eight rebounds in the Liberty’s three games against Minnesota this season. She’s also drained six of her 10 attempts from deep in the regular-season series.
Expect Stewart’s business partner Napheesa Collier to draw the primary matchup. She previously said she’s operating at about 80-85 percent after having offseason surgery on both of her ankles.
Edge: Liberty
3-point shooting
The Liberty are a high-volume 3-point shooting team, attempting 29.3 shots from deep per game — nearly five more than the Lynx. Minnesota, however, is more efficient.
Winning this battle will come down to which version of Sabrina Ionescu shows up. She’s really struggled this season, converting on below 30 percent of her outside attempts for the second consecutive season.
Let’s put it this way: Ionescu is averaging nearly the same number of 3s per game as Jones, who’s attempting two fewer shots.
Edge: Even
Depth/bench
The Liberty can go deeper into their bench than the Lynx to allow starters some time to breathe. DeMarco deployed a nine-player rotation (10 if you count Marine Fauthoux’s one-minute of action) earlier this month in Minnesota, while Cheryl Reeve ran with eight.
The Liberty’s bench is top-five in scoring, with 23.4 points per game, while Lynx reserves average a league-low 15.4 points.
Edge: Liberty
Coaching
Reeve became the WNBA’s all-time winningest head coach earlier this year. Her 52-31 postseason record ranks first in league history. She’s been at the helm of seven Finals runs, including four championship wins.
DeMarco’s experience pales in comparison. Sure, he was on the Warriors bench for six NBA Finals runs and 171 playoff games. But, as Liberty players mentioned last week, there’s a steep learning curve between the men’s and women’s game.
DeMarco is also new to the 1-1-1 format.
Edge: Lynx
Prediction
The Liberty already won a three-game series against the Lynx in the regular season. But that’s a small sample size compared to the full body of work.
The Lynx have been the best team all season, while the Liberty have taken a windy path to this moment. The Libs haven’t consistently been a scary team.
The Liberty’s core three has a ton of experience together, and it’s hard to bet against Stewart, especially with how well she’s been playing lately. But the Lynx get their revenge from the 2024 Finals.
Edge: Lynx in 3
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