BP Gains on Exxon to Emerge as Top Big-Oil Stock During Iran War

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(Bloomberg) — BP Plc, long the laggard among oil supermajors, is emerging as the sector’s top stock during the Iran war as it reaps “exceptional” trading profits and avoids the scale of production outages hurting rivals like Exxon Mobil Corp.

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The windfall comes at a crucial time for London-based BP and its new Chief Executive Officer, Meg O’Neill, the company’s fourth leader in six years. BP shares are the sector’s worst performing since a 2020 strategy to invest heavily in low-carbon energy projects and phase out fossil fuels failed to pay off, causing debt to spiral. 

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Exxon, the standout energy performer of the last six years, is being hit hardest by the crisis. About a fifth of its global production, mainly from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, is trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz while a massive liquefied natural gas complex Exxon holds a stake in was damaged by Iranian missiles and could take years to repair. 

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While crude prices have surged more than 45% to above $100 a barrel during the eight-week conflict, the shares of big oil companies have failed to keep pace. That’s because oil futures show a steep decline in the coming months as investors expect the strait to eventually reopen. 

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BP shares are up about 20% since the war began Feb. 28, while Exxon’s have declined about 2%.

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BP reports earnings Tuesday, followed by French major TotalEnergies SE Wednesday and Exxon and Chevron Corp. Friday. Shell Plc reports May 7. 

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Higher oil and gas prices caused by the war have benefited the supermajor oil companies, but the gains are uneven. Exxon has about five times as much production affected by the war in the Persian Gulf than Chevron, according to Raymond James. Europe’s majors have much larger trading divisions than their US rivals, giving them greater scope to benefit from the price volatility caused by the war. 

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BP’s stock has performed better than peers in part because it was cheaper to begin with — meaning it had more to gain from $100-a-barrel crude relative to its rivals. After suspending its share buyback earlier this year, analysts expect the company to use the cash infusion to pay down debt more aggressively, giving it more financial flexibility to grow oil and gas exploration and production in the future. 

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BP noted in a filing this month that it expected its trading results to be “exceptional“ while Shell and Total have also indicated elevated profits.

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By contrast Exxon and Chevron are more risk-averse when it comes to trading, typically using derivatives to mitigate price volatility once cargoes have been shipped. 

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That strategy mean the two US companies will take mark-to-market losses of nearly $7 billion in the first quarter, though they expect these so-called “timing effects” to fully unwind over the coming quarters once customers receive the cargoes. 

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“You have a market that’s under-supplied with crude, and so normalized prices will be higher for longer,” said James West, an energy analyst at Melius Research. While this should benefit the sector long-term, in the short-term there are differences between the stocks, he said.