Bombardier Rally Faces New Hurdle on Trump’s Canadian Jet Threat

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(Bloomberg) — Private jet-maker Bombardier Inc.’s bullish run hit a roadblock Friday as President Donald Trump threatened to slap a 50% tariff on aircraft from Canada and decertify all new planes made there.

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Trump in a Truth Social post on Thursday accused Canada of refusing to certify certain jets made by Gulfstream. He threatened to retaliate by decertifying Bombardier Global Expresses and all other new Canadian aircraft in response, risking Bombardier’s access to its largest market. The Canadian aerospace company received 64% of its revenue in 2024 from US.

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The stock fell 7.3% to C$229.45 by 10:50 a.m. in Toronto on Friday after falling as much as 11% earlier in the session. The latest drop follows a 9% plunge on Monday after an aircraft made by the company crashed while taking off in Maine on Sunday evening. The stock was also downgraded to sell by Goldman Sachs on Monday.  

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Together, the declines this week have clipped the wings off a rally that had sent shares more than 200% higher over the past year, through last Friday. 

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“Even if actions threatened by President Trump are averted, we believe there will be heightened and potentially drawn-out investor sentiment and valuation multiple pressure on Bombardier, and other Canadian aerospace companies that export to the US,” said TD Cowen analyst Tim James.

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The defense segment had been steadily improving since early 2024, said TD Cowen’s James, and he doesn’t expect Bombardier to return the gains it has made since then.

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Bombardier said in a Thursday evening statement that it had taken note of Trump’s post and has been in contact with the Canadian government. The Quebec private jet maker said it employs more than 3,000 people in the US, and creates thousands of US jobs through 2,800 suppliers. 

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Canadian Industry Minister Melanie Joly on Friday said certification work is “well underway” for Gulfstream planes. 

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Some analysts characterized Trump’s threat as noise and said there’s little chance the tariffs and decertification threats will be enforced. National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen said that “while this latest threat will undoubtedly cause anxiety for the Canadian aerospace industry,” they doubted the move would go ahead since Canada could easily certify US aircraft. Tariffs on Canadian aerospace would also hurt US industries – and the Trump administration decertifying Canadian planes would be an “unprecedented move,” he said.

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It’s too early to determine how credible the threats are, but the worrying headlines could “make investors wary,” said Scotiabank analyst Konark Gupta. 

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Gupta had downgraded Bombardier to sector perform earlier in the month based on valuation, but said the recent pullback and “further potential weakness” could make the stock look attractive again. 

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