Bjorn Lomborg: Three smart ways for Canada to respond to climate change

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At a time when government finances are strained and Canada and the world face many problems and threats, we need to consider policy choices carefully. On climate, we should spend smart, both to be effective and to make sure money is left over for all the other challenges.

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A sensible response to climate change starts with telling it as it is. We are bombarded with doom-mongering that too often is just plain wrong. Climate change is a problem but it’s — literally — not the end of the world.

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Yet overheated rhetoric has convinced governments to spend heavily on subsidizing inefficient solutions. In 2024, the world spent a record $3 trillion on the green energy transition. Directly and indirectly, taxpayers are subsidizing millions of wind turbines and solar panels that do little for climate change but enrich green-energy companies.

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We need to do better. We need to invest more in the only realistic solution to climate change: research and development into low-carbon energy. Studies indicate that a dollar invested in green R&D can prevent US$11 in long-term climate damage, making it the most effective long-term global climate policy.

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Throughout history humanity has tackled major challenges, not by imposing restrictions, but with transformative technologies. We didn’t address L.A. air pollution by banning cars. We invented the catalytic converter. We didn’t combat global hunger by getting people to eat less. We undertook a “Green Revolution” that brought high-yielding varieties and grew much more food.

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In 1980, after the oil price shocks, the rich world spent more than eight cents of every US$100 of GDP on green R&D to find energy alternatives. As fossil fuels became cheap again, however, investment fell. And when climate concern grew, we forgot about innovation and instead shifted focus to subsidizing existing solar and wind technologies that are not effective.

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In Paris in 2015, governments promised to double green R&D spending by 2020 — but then did no such thing. By 2023, the rich world still wasn’t back to spending even four cents out of every US$100 of GDP on it. The rich world now spends just $35 billion a year on green R&D  — which is only a hundredth of overall “green” spending. We should increase this four-fold to about $140 billion a year. Canada’s share would be under $5 billion a year, less than a tenth the $50 billion it spent on the energy transition last year.